iFOREX Daily Analysis : October 01, 2015
iFOREX | Oct 01, 2015 04:57AM ET
The dollar remained broadly higher against the other major currencies on Wednesday, after the release of a strong U.S. non-farm private employment report and as investors eyed a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Data showed the U.S. private sector added more jobs than expected in September, raising hopes for a strong reading in the government's payrolls report due Friday. In the same time another report showed that the euro zone unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.0% in August.
Traders are now awaiting for today’s U.S. report on initial jobless claims and data on manufacturing activity from the Institute for Supply Management, and on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and data on factory orders, for further indications on the strength of the global economy.
EUR/USD
The euro fell sharply on Wednesday, as optimistic U.S. employment data combined with disappointing monthly inflation in the euro zone propped up the dollar against its European counterpart.
On Wednesday morning, payroll processing firm ADP said US non-farm private employment rose by 200,000 in September, above analysts' expectations of a 190,000 gain.
The reading provides optimism for Friday's highly anticipated national employment report, one which is expected to be closely watched by the Fed. September jobs report on Friday is expected to show that the economy added 203,000 non-farm payrolls this month, up from a subpar gain of 173,000 in August, so traders are now curious to see whether it will match these expectations or not.
Pivot:1.121
Support:1.11151.111.1075
Resistance:1.1211.1241.126
Scenario 1:Short positions below 1.121 with targets @ 1.1115 & 1.11 in extension.
Scenario 2:Above 1.121 look for further upside with 1.124 & 1.126 as targets.
Comment:The RSI is badly directed.
Gold
Gold was mostly flat in Asia on Thursday, amid a slew of data that pointed to a mixed view on manufacturing in the region and with China markets shut for a holiday.
Today, China starts a week-long holiday to mark the country's National Day, but surveys on manufacturing and services were released. The official CFLP manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.8 in September, and beat an expectation of 49.6; while the Caixin manufacturing PMI for September came in as expected at 47.2, and the Caixin Services index came in at 50.5, compared to 51.5 in August.
Get The News You Want
Traders are now awaiting for today’s U.S. report on initial jobless claims and data on manufacturing activity from the Institute for Supply Management, and on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and data on factory orders.
Pivot:1127
Support:111011031099
Resistance:112711351140
Scenario 1:Short positions below 1127 with targets @ 1110 & 1103 in extension.
Scenario 2:Above 1127 look for further upside with 1135 & 1140 as targets.
Comment:As long as 1127 is resistance, likely decline to 1110.
WTI Oil
Crude oil prices edged up in early Asian trading on Thursday, as demand was estimated to have remained strong despite slowing economic growth in Asia, and as Russian and western air campaigns in Syria worried markets.
U.S. markets are also seeing a first impact of that hurricane Joaquin heading America's way and we've seen some speculative buying of WTI to prepare for the case it impacts Gulf of Mexico production.
Yesterday in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 4.0 million barrels for the week ending on September 25, significantly above estimates for a 0.5 million draw.
Now investors’ focus will be on Friday nonfarm payrolls report and data on factory orders.
Pivot:44.7
Support:44.744.343.7
Resistance:46.146.446.9
Scenario 1:Long positions above 44.7 with targets @ 46.1 & 46.4 in extension.
Scenario 2:Below 44.7 look for further downside with 44.3 & 43.7 as targets.
Comment:The RSI is supported by a rising trend line.
NASDAQ 100
U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday as investors sought bargains among beaten down stocks and the recently battered biotechnology index bounced back on the last day of Wall Street's worst quarter since 2011.
For much of the third quarter, global markets were rocked by fears of slowing growth in China and uncertainty over timing for a U.S. Federal Reserve hike of interest rates.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 235 points, or 1.4%, the S&P 500 gained 35 points, or 1.9% and the Nasdaq Composite added 102 points, or 2.2%.
Investment strategists and traders said it was too soon to expect Wednesday's rally to be sustainable. However, instead of trying to bet on the rate hike timing, investors will now probably focus on economic data and look ahead to the third-quarter earnings season, which begins next week.
Pivot: 4050
Support: 4050 4000 3940
Resistance: 4230 4310 4370
Scenario 1: Long positions above 4050 with targets @ 4230 & 4310 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 4050 look for further downside with 4000 & 3940 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
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