iFOREX Daily Analysis : April 25 ,2017

The euro held steady on Monday, after the sharp gains following the first-round results of the French presidential election, while the Canadian dollar fell after the U.S. imposed duties on Canadian softwood lumber.

The Canadian dollar fell 0.4 percent after U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said his agency will impose new anti-subsidy duties averaging 20 percent on Canadian softwood lumber imports.

The USD/CAD fell to C$1.3560, its lowest level since late December when it sank to C$1.3598.

In the U.S. economic calendar, Dallas manufacturing business index announced a lower-than-expected rise last month, official data showed on Monday.

In a report, Dallas Fed manufacturing Index rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.8, from 16.9 in the preceding month.

In the euro zone Germany’s Ifo business climate rose more-than-expected last month, data showed on Monday.

The index said that German business climate rose to 112.9, from 112.4 in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from 112.3.

For this week, Trump is facing a Friday deadline for Congress to pass a spending bill funding the government through September or risk marking his 100th day in office on Saturday with a government shutdown.

For today, the UK is to report on public sector borrowing while later in the day, the U.S. is to release data on consumer sentiment and new home sales.

EUR/USD

The euro remained almost unchanged against the dollar on Monday after rising to a five-month high, following a French election result that eased fears over the future of the euro zone.

For Tuesday, the euro traded around $1.0866 in the Asian session, off Monday's peak of around $1.0940, its highest level since Nov. 10, after centrist Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the French presidential elections.

Polls show Macron defeating anti-EU Marine Le Pen in a runoff vote due to take place next month.

In the week ahead, Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, Friday’s euro zone inflation data and preliminary estimates of first quarter growth from the U.S remain in focus while for today, the U.S. is to release data on consumer sentiment and new home sales.

Pivot: 1.082Support: 1.082 1.078 1.074Resistance: 1.09 1.0945 1.0975Scenario 1: long positions above 1.0820 with targets at 1.0900 & 1.0945 in extension.Scenario 2: below 1.0820 look for further downside with 1.0780 & 1.0740 as targets.Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Get The News You Want

Read market moving news with a personalized feed of stocks you care about.

Get The App

Gold

Gold prices fell on Monday, as investors pulled out of safe-haven assets such as gold, after pro-European candidate Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the French presidential election.

Gold suffered its biggest decline in over a month, falling more than 1%, after polls indicated Mr Macron would emerge victorious against anti-EU candidate Marine Le Pen in the run-off vote, scheduled for May 7.

The drop in gold, was capped by dollar weakness and rising geopolitical tensions.

Investors’ attention is now shifted towards Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting, preliminary estimates of first quarter growth from the U.S and Trump’s Friday deadline for Congress to pass a spending bill funding the government through September.

Pivot: 1278Support: 1271 1268 1265Resistance: 1278 1280 1282.5Scenario 1: short positions below 1278.00 with targets at 1271.00 & 1268.00 in extension.Scenario 2: above 1278.00 look for further upside with 1280.00 & 1282.50 as targets.Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

WTI Oil

Crude settled lower on Monday, as investors questioned whether OPEC would seek to extend the current deal to curb global supply amid rising levels of U.S. production.

The market is now looking ahead to industry estimates of crude and refined product inventories in the U.S.

Later on Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its estimates of crude oil supplies at the end of last week with a survey showing an expected drop of 1.3 million barrels for crude, a decline of 1.2 million barrels for heating oil and a 1.225 million barrels dip in gasoline.

The figures will be followed by official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.

Pivot: 49.7Support: 49 48.45 48.05Resistance: 49.7 50.2 50.5Scenario 1: short positions below 49.70 with targets at 49.00 & 48.45 in extension.Scenario 2: above 49.70 look for further upside with 50.20 & 50.50 as targets.Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 49.70.

US 500

The main U.S. indices gained on Monday, on relief that centrist Emmanuel Macron won the first round of voting in the French presidential election, reducing the prospect of an anti-establishment market shock.

Gains in the Basic Materials, Financials and Technology sectors led shares higher.

At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05% to hit a new 1-month high, while the S&P 500 index climbed 1.08%, and the NASDAQ Composite index gained 1.24%.

The best performers of the session were JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) which rose 3.53%, meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) added 2.93% and Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) was up 2.64% or 2.49 points to 96.81 in late trade.

For the week ahead, preliminary estimates of first quarter growth from the U.S and Trump’s Friday deadline for Congress to pass a spending bill funding the government through September remain in the spotlight.

Pivot: 2365 Support: 2365 2356 2340 Resistance: 2380 2390 2400 Scenario 1: long positions above 2365.00 with targets at 2380.00 & 2390.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2365.00 look for further downside with 2356.00 & 2340.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.

Written By: iFOREX