iFOREX Daily Analysis : September 20,2018
iFOREX | Sep 20, 2018 04:50AM ET
The US Dollar continues to see a downside compared to other major currencies, as the US Dollar Index (USDX) hovers around its 7-weeks low. Meanwhile the New Zealand Dollar extended its gains and is now on track to gain for the fourth day this week against the US Dollar, after GDP growth was reported at 2.8% y/y for Q2 and thus surpassing expectations of a 2.6% growth.
Most precious metals, such as gold, silver and platinum have been trading so far higher every day of this week. One of the best performing metals however is palladium, which gained over 6.6 percent so far over the course of this week. Some analysts attribute the rise in palladium prices to the strategic planning of the electric vehicle industry.
Major cryptocurrencies traded overall with relatively little movement compared to Wednesday. Meanwhile Bitcoin investors are worried about possible added supply, as the defunct exchange Mt Gox is preparing to distribute around 160 thousand of bitcoin tokens to former investors.
On Thursday in the United Kingdom Retail Sales data will be released. Russia publishes its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistic for August and its Central bank reserves. In Mexico Aggregate Demand and Private Spending statistics will be released, and form the US Business Confidences, Jobless New Claims and Existing Home Sales data is expected. In the Asian-Pacific trading session on Friday, Japan publishes its CPI and Manufacturing PMI data.
EUR/USD
Despite the weakness of the Dollar, as the US Dollar Index (USDX) hovers around its 7-weeks low, the Euro failed to make any progress on Thursday. During the speech of the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, the EUR/USD traded only marginally above 1.165, as Draghi demanded coordinated fiscal instruments by Euro area members to fight off further crisis.
Meanwhile the Euro zone current account surplus was reported lower for July compared to the previous month at €21 bn. vs. €24 bn.
On Thursday in the EU Consumer Confidence data will be released and the president of the German central bank (Bundesbank) will deliver a speech.
Pivot:1.1665Support:1.16651.1651.1635Resistance:1.17151.17251.1745Scenario 1:long positions above 1.1665 with targets at 1.1715 & 1.1725 in extension.Scenario 2:below 1.1665 look for further downside with 1.1650 & 1.1635 as targets.Comment:the RSI shows upside momentum.
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USD/ZAR
The South African Rand further extended its gains, now trading at its strongest level against the Dollar in September after Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August indicated lower inflation at 4.9% y/y contrary to market expectations of inflation rising above the previous figure of 5.1%.
This comes ahead of the South African Central Bank’s decision about interest rates. The majority of economists, according to a Reuters poll, expect interest rates to remain unchanged at 6.5%.
Next week Producer Price Index, Private Sector Credit and Trade Balance data from August are expected.
Pivot:14.598Support:14.59814.52414.48Resistance:14.79914.84314.887Scenario 1:rebound towards 14.7990.Scenario 2:below 14.5980, expect 14.5240 and 14.4800.Comment:the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is negative and above its signal line. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the pair is trading above its 20 MA (14.6511) but under its 50 MA (14.6952).
WTI Oil
The price of WTI oil contracts saw a significant upside after data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) as it was now reported that crude oil inventories fell by 2.1 million barrels and gasoline inventories were also unexpectedly 1.7 million barrels lower compared to the previous week. This is in contrast to data from the American Petroleum Institute from Tuesday, where the report mentioned added 1.25 million barrels crude oil to storage.
With the inventory statistics release, WTI oil added more than half a percent within the hour of the release, however prices of the more international Brent benchmark were mostly unaffected by the news and thus reducing the spread between the WTI and Brent contracts.
On Friday the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count will be released. On Sunday members of the OPEC cartel will meet in Algiers and are due to present then the 2018 OPEC World Oil Outlook report.
Pivot:70.9Support:70.970.269.2Resistance:72.372.8573.3Scenario 1:long positions above 70.90 with targets at 72.30 & 72.85 in extension.Scenario 2:below 70.90 look for further downside with 70.20 & 69.70 as targets.Comment:the RSI advocates for further upside. The prices are trading above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages.
US 500
Most US equity indices traded mixed with little movement from the closing prices of the previous day, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US 30) gained more than 0.6% with strong performance seen from banks like Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) (+2.84%) and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) (+2.86%).
Besides banks, financial companies also traded overall stronger (US Financials ETF +1.73%), while significant losses were seen in utility companies’ values (US Utilities ETF -2.13%) This development coincides with the 10 Year Us Treasury Note Yield reaching the highest value in four months.
Despite the intensifying trade standoff some Chinese ecommerce stocks like Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) (+3.85%) or Baidu (+4.55%) traded higher. Baidu recently announced that it would further expand its move to artificial intelligence after the company announced that it would launch an open autonomous driving platform.
On Thursday the Philadelphia Fed General Business Condition Survey, Jobless New Claims, Existing Home Sales, as well as data from the Federal Reserve Bank will be released.
Pivot: 2905 Support: 2905 2900.5 2896 Resistance: 2919.25 2931 2939 Scenario 1: long positions above 2905.00 with targets at 2919.25 & 2931.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2905.00 look for further downside with 2900.50 & 2896.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside. Prices broke above a bullish flag continuation pattern.
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