iFOREX Daily Analysis : September 12,2018
iFOREX | Sep 12, 2018 05:19AM ET
The Dollar traded almost unchanged against other major currencies, as the US Dollar Index (USDX) closed 0.07% lower.
Oil traded as high as $70 in the WTI oil contract, closing 3.3% higher on Tuesday, after data from the API unexpectedly indicated a drop of 8.6 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles.
US equity indices traded moderately higher, with the strong performance of energy and technology stocks pushing the overall market higher. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is set to announce its new iPhone lineup on Wednesday, with many rumors being circulated which phones will be actually announced and how Apple will name them.
Most cryptocurrencies were trading lower, however significant differences were seen between even the major cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin prices remained mostly unchanged, the sell-off especially in Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash intensified. Analysts attribute the fall in Ethereum prices to an earlier inflation due to popularity of Ethereum to fund ICOs, while mainstream adaptation is lagging behind.
On Wednesday in Italy data on Industrial Production and the Unemployment rate will be released. The European Union also releases its Industrial Production data. For emerging markets data on Retail Sales from South Africa and Consumer Price Index and Manufacturing Output from India are expected.
EUR/USD
After another volatile trading day, the EUR/USD ended Tuesday almost unchanged. No major data releases were seen neither in the US, nor in the Euro zone, with the available data overall positive as the Germany ZEW Survey on Current Conditions at 76.0 for September exceeded expectations of 72.0 and the previous results. In the US the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 108.8 also exceeded expectations (expected 108.1), while Wholesale Trade was up by 0.6% m/m (previous +0.1%).
On Wednesday in Italy data on Industrial Production and the Unemployment rate will be released. The European Union also releases its Industrial Production data.
The European Commission President Juncker is reported to call for the promotion of the Euro as global currency, which would challenge the Dollar dominance, at the European Parliament on Wednesday.
Pivot:1.1575Support:1.15751.15551.1525Resistance:1.16051.1621.1645Scenario 1:long positions above 1.1575 with targets at 1.1605 & 1.1620 in extension.Scenario 2:below 1.1575 look for further downside with 1.1555 & 1.1525 as targets.Comment:even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
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Hong Kong 50
While equities in many other markets like the US and Europe showed some upside, Chinese and by extension Hong Kong stocks see continued pressure, with Hong Kong indices falling to a new 14-months low. China faces uncertainty from the trade standoff with the US, but also over concerns about non-performing loans and increasing bankruptcies.
This week data on New Loans and Outstanding Loan Growth in China is expected. On Thursday data on Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment will be released. On Friday Chinese House Prices data will be published.
Pivot:26500Support:26202583525600Resistance:265002671526950Scenario 1:short positions below 26500.00 with targets at 26020.00 & 25835.00 in extension.Scenario 2:above 26500.00 look for further upside with 26715.00 & 26950.00 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed to bearish.
WTI Oil
Oil gained significantly on Tuesday over data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which indicated a draw of 8.6 million barrels compared to the previous week. This significant reduction in stockpiles took analysts by surprise, as the fall is stockpiles was more than three times the expected amount.
The volatile situation in countries such as Iraq and Libya could have also impacted market supplies. In Libya apparently ISIS terrorists attacked offices of the National Oil Corporation and in Iraq the same terrorist group claimed responsibility for the bombing of a pipeline in the Kurdish region of Northern Iraq.
On Wednesday the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will also publish crude oil stockpile statistics, as well as data on gasoline and distillate stockpiles.
Pivot:69.2Support:69.268.527.9Resistance:70.1570.871.2Scenario 1:long positions above 69.20 with targets at 70.15 & 70.80 in extension.Scenario 2:below 69.20 look for further downside with 68.50 & 67.90 as targets.Comment:the RSI lacks downward momentum. The prices jumped after breaking above a declining trend line.
US 500
US equity indices closed overall higher on Tuesday, supported among other factors by solid performance of energy sector (US Energy ETF (NYSE:XLE) +1.00%) and technology (US Technology ETF +0.85%) stocks.
Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) (+7.61%) stocks surged to a new six-week high, following positive analysts' reviews and the company announcing that feedback about its newest game in the 'Call of Duty' series, due to be released on October 12, was "extremely positive".
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) (-2.98%) continues to struggle, while its main competitor in the processor business AMD (+0.77%) continues to move ahead. Intel stocks closed for the sixth consecutive trading day lower on Tuesday. As Intel is facing problems moving onto its next production technology in 10-nanometers, postponing the release for next year. The company admitted that supply problems of current processors in the older 14-nanometer production stem also from the delayed change.
On Wednesday in the US the Mortgage Bankers' Association will release its data regarding the US mortgage market.
Pivot: 2883 Support: 2883 2876 2870 Resistance: 2892 2900 2906 Scenario 1: long positions above 2883.00 with targets at 2892.00 & 2900.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2883.00 look for further downside with 2876.00 & 2870.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.
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