iFOREX Daily Analysis : March 15,2018
iFOREX | Mar 15, 2018 06:07AM ET
The US Dollar traded overall almost unchanged against other major currencies with the US Dollar Index (USDX) closing 0.06% higher. Markets remain concerned about the fallout due to the US Trump Administration unilaterally imposing tariffs on trading partners and threatening further measures, while geopolitical tensions between Russia and western countries are rising, after the United Kingdom announced sanctions against Russia, including the expulsion of diplomats, following the alleged involvement Russia’s in the poisoning of a former double-agent. The Russian Ruble lost 0.81% against the Dollar in Wednesday’s trading and closed trading at a monthly low.
Gold traded very slightly lower, despite disappointing Retail Sales data from the US and also falling US Treasury yields. Oil was subject to volatility in this trading session as the EIA release of stockpile data was a surprise with significantly higher crude oil supplies but on the other hand significantly lower supplies of gasoline, whereas market participants only expected a smaller change of stockpiles.
US equity indices traded lower, which was blamed on the instability in the Trump Administration, new tariffs and weak retail data by some analysts.
Bitcoin fell to a one month low, while many other cryptocurrencies also showed double digit percentage losses. The losses were in part attributed to Google’s announcement to ban cryptocurrency advertising. The US Congress held a Subcommittee meeting on Wednesday regarding cryptocurrencies and Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) with legislators demanding more regulation of this new sphere.
On Thursday France publishes CPI data, followed by the Producer and Import Price Index and SNB Monetary Policy Report from Switzerland. The US is due to release import/export price data, business condition surveys, as well as jobless and housing market statistics.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD traded somewhat lower on Wednesday as the economic data from the Euro-Zone disappointed, while the Dollar remained steady. German CPI was on track with an annual 1.4% increase, however Italian Retail Sales numbers at -0.5% m/m (expected -0.1%) and Industrial Production (IP) in the EU at +2.7% y/y (expected +4.7%) did not match expectations. Meanwhile ECB President Draghi promised on Wednesday to avoid surprising investors regarding the exit from the stimulus program.
On Thursday France publishes CPI numbers. From the US side a multitude of fundamental data is due for release, such as Import/Export Prices, M2 Money Supply, Federal Reserve Bank Total Assets and Credit, Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities as well as business conditions, housing and job market data.
Pivot:1.24Support:1.23351.2311.229Resistance:1.241.24151.2445Scenario 1:short positions below 1.2400 with targets at 1.2335 & 1.2310 in extension.Scenario 2:above 1.2400 look for further upside with 1.2415 & 1.2445 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed to bearish.
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Gold
Gold settled lower for the first time in this week, while also reaching a one week high in intraday trading on Wednesday. The fall comes despite 10 Year US Treasury Bills trading very close to a two week low. Even weaker economic data was unable to push gold higher.
Further economic data, such as the Empire State General Business Conditions and Philadelphia Fed General Business Conditions level as well as the Housing Market Index and the Jobless New Claims level is due for publication on Thursday in the United States.
Pivot:1315.5Support:1315.51312.51307Resistance:13321336.51340.5Scenario 1:long positions above 1315.50 with targets at 1332.00 & 1336.50 in extension.Scenario 2:below 1315.50 look for further downside with 1312.50 & 1307.00 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed to bullish.
WTI Oil
Oil had another day of volatile trading and settled on marginally higher for the WTI future on Wednesday. The stockpile figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) were somewhat of a surprise and moved the price of oil around the time the figures were published lower. Analysts expected a small gain in crude oil stockpiles and a small draw on gasoline stockpiles. However EIA data indicated 5 million barrels more oil inventories but also a much more significant draw than expected for gasoline at -6.3 million barrels. In the end the draw in gasoline seemed to outweigh the build in crude.
The Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count will be published on Friday, indicating the number of operating oil rigs in the United States. The number published last Friday showed a small decline after a long series of increases.
Pivot:61.35Support:60.359.9559.58Resistance:61.3561.6761.95Scenario 1:short positions below 61.35 with targets at 60.30 & 59.95 in extension.Scenario 2:above 61.35 look for further upside with 61.67 & 61.95 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed to bearish.
US 500
US equity indices closed altogether lower on Wednesday amid fears of a global trade war. Weak US Retail Sales m/m figures at -0.1% (expected +0.4%) also pushed on the sentiment. Some of the most significant declines were seen in bank (US Banks ETF -1.49%) and basic materials (US Basic Materials ETF -1.28%) values, while utilities (US Utilities ETF +0.95%) traded higher as some analysts suggest a relationship between utilities and yields with US 10 Year Treasury Yield declining on Wednesday.
Twitter (+7.1%) closed at a new 2.5-year high as it was revealed that the company was working on a ‘camera-first feature’, which is said to compete with Snapchat. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) (-4.44%) traded lower on reports that Tesla employees claiming Tesla using a significant amount of flawed parts, which later require expensive replacements.
Adobe and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) are due to release their quarterly earnings results after the end of the regular trading session on Thursday.
Pivot: 2770 Support: 2745 2735 2723 Resistance: 2770 2783 2795 Scenario 1: short positions below 2770.00 with targets at 2745.00 & 2735.00 in extension. Scenario 2: above 2770.00 look for further upside with 2783.00 & 2795.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
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