iFOREX Daily Analysis : March 13,2018
iFOREX | Mar 13, 2018 05:00AM ET
The US Dollar traded slightly lower against a basket of other major currencies with the US Dollar Index (USDX) closing 0.23% lower. The Turkish Lira (TRY) reached almost a 2 months low against the Dollar as the current account deficit for January was significantly higher than expected and rating agency Moody’s downgraded ratings on many Turkish commercial banks, citing concerns about the Turkish state’s ability to support the banking sector, should such need arise.
Gold pushed lower in Tuesday’s trading but closed almost unchanged at the end of the day despite US Treasury yields were lower and a weaker Dollar. The lower oil prices on Monday are attributed by commentators to concerns that the US could further increase shale oil production.
US equity indices closed mixed, however the NASDAQ (US Tech 100) reached a new all-time high. Positive sentiment from different tech companies, such as Micron (+8.89), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) (+5.75%) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) (+1.53%) which is striving to now also offer banking services to customers.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency traded on Monday at a loss with Bitcoin again reaching below the $9,000 level.
Japan is due to release Capital Goods Price Index (PPI) data in the Asian trading session on Tuesday. Italy is set to publish Unemployment Rate figures. Then the US will publish inflation (CPI) data. In Wednesday’s Asian session China is set to publish Industrial Production (IP) and Retail Sales data and Japan its Tertiary Index.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (‘Cable’) reached its highest level since last Tuesday as the UK government announced a growth of 1.7% for the British economy in 2017 compared to the estimated only 1.5% growth. However there seems to remain a high amount of uncertainty surrounding the implications of Brexit as EU27 member states are pressuring the UK to come up with a compromise for the question of the border on the Irish island.
Focus of Tuesday’s trading will be on the publication of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the United States.
Pivot:1.386Support:1.3861.383513.79Resistance:1.3941.39751.4005Scenario 1:long positions above 1.3860 with targets at 1.3940 & 1.3975 in extension.Scenario 2:below 1.3860 look for further downside with 1.3835 & 1.3790 as targets.Comment:the RSI advocates for further upside.
AUD/USD
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The ‘Aussie’ reached a two-week high against the US Dollar on Monday. In part it is attributed by analysts to the US job market data published on Friday, which possibly will not push the Federal Reserve to increase the speed at which rake hikes are implemented. US President Trump announced that due to a ‘fair and reciprocal’ relationship, the US will not impose the new tariffs on steel and aluminum from Australia.
On Tuesday in Australia NAB Business Confidence and Home Loans data will be released. The Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bullock Speaks is due to deliver a speech also on Tuesday in the Australian/Asian trading session.
Pivot:0.785Support:0.7850.7830.781Resistance:0.78950.7920.7935Scenario 1:long positions above 0.7850 with targets at 0.7895 & 0.7920 in extension.Scenario 2:below 0.7850 look for further downside with 0.7830 & 0.7810 as targets.Comment:the RSI advocates for further upside.
WTI Oil
Crude oil settled lower, retracing from its Friday’s high as markets were concerned about the possibility of expanding US shale oil production. Friday’s CFTC data indicated that traders reduced their speculative bullish bets on crude oil for the first time in two weeks.
On Tuesday the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release oil stockpile figures, followed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.
Pivot:61.85Support:60.7460.560.15Resistance:61.8562.3562.85Scenario 1:short positions below 61.85 with targets at 60.74 & 60.50 in extension.Scenario 2:above 61.85 look for further upside with 62.35 & 62.85 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed to bearish.
US Tech 100
US equity indices closed mixed on Monday, while the NASDAQ (US Tech 100) reached an all-time high. Especially the real estate (US Real Estate ETF +0.66%) and utilities (US Utilities ETF +0.59%) showed gains in Monday’s trading, while the most significant losses were seen with industrial (US Industrial ETF -1.00%) values.
Chipmaker Micron (+8.89%) made another big jump and is in the month of March alone up by 21.6% on analysts’ positive estimates amid high chip prices in the market. Tesla surged up by 5.75%, making up for almost all losses in this month so far. It was reported that the Model 3 production was temporarily shut down for days at the end of February.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) shares were initially lower in after hour trading as US President Trump blocked the takeover by the Singapore domiciled chip designer Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), allegedly due to national security arguments.
The publication of Core CPI and CPI data in the US on Tuesday is expected to be one of the key data publication events during Tuesday’s trading. Also on Tuesday NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and Redbook Store Sales data is due to be released.
Pivot: 7090 Support: 7090 7050 6995 Resistance: 7187 7265 7310 Scenario 1: long positions above 7090.00 with targets at 7187.00 & 7265.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 7090.00 look for further downside with 7050.00 & 6995.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
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