iFOREX Daily Analysis : July 13,2018
iFOREX | Jul 13, 2018 08:05AM ET
The US Dollar continued to appreciate against other major currencies, with the US Dollar Index (USDX) closing 0.09% higher on Thursday and continuing to trade higher on Friday.
Oil traded almost unchanged and showed no signs of recovery after the plunge in prices on Wednesday. Meanwhile the IEA warned that oil production capacity were stretched, in part due to outages in different countries like Canada and Libya. Despite the pressure from the stronger Dollar, gold traded higher on Thursday, however those gains were reversed early on Friday with the further advance of the Dollar.
On Thursday equity indices were trading mostly higher in North America, Europe and Asia, after earlier this week uncertainties about global trade with the US, which still persist, pushed markets overall lower.
Major cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum showed no signs of recovery as they hit their lowest level for July on the night to Friday.
On Friday in Switzerland the Producer and Import Price Index is due to be published. In the US Export and Import Prices as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released.
EUR/USD
The Euro was again pressured by the strong Dollar and declined towards a one week low. European fundamental data released on Thursday mostly matched expectations or missed them by a small margin. The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June was up by 0.1% m/m as expected, while French inflation missed the expectations at 0% m/m growth (expected +0.1%). European Industrial Production also missed the expected level and was reported at only +1.3% m/m (expected +1.5%).
In the United States New Jobless Claims fell unexpectedly to 214 thousand (expected 225 thousand), again close to a 50 years low.
On Friday in the US data on Import and Export Prices, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment level are due to be released.
Pivot:1.168Support:1.1641.16251.161Resistance:1.1681.16951.1725Scenario 1:short positions below 1.1680 with targets at 1.1640 & 1.1625 in extension.Scenario 2:above 1.1680 look for further upside with 1.1695 & 1.1725 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
USD/JPY
The Japanese Yen (JPY) fell to a new 6 months low against the Dollar and recently also declined against other major currencies such as the Euro and the British Pound. Japanese Capacity Utilization for May was reported at -2.1% m/m, which was an even steeper decline than previously expected. Some analysts explained the move with data showing Japanese pension funds using the recent dip in foreign stock prices, to add such stocks to their portfolio at a cheaper price.
Next week in Japan Trade Balance and CPI data is scheduled to be released.
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Pivot:112.35Support:112.35112111.65Resistance:113113.35113.6Scenario 1:long positions above 112.35 with targets at 113.00 & 113.35 in extension.Scenario 2:112.35 look for further downside with 112.00 & 111.65 as targets.Comment:even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
WTI Oil
WTI Oil prices further declined on Thursday, reaching the lowest level seen this month so far, but were then later able to recover and close only slightly lower.
Meanwhile the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its monthly report, that the spare capacity in the oil market decreased as production in countries like Canada, Venezuela and Libya faced outages. While OPEC, Russia and other countries part of a deal to curb supplies eased the restrictions and agreed to increase output by around 1 million barrels per day, analysts see only limited space in terms of available capacity, should further increases be agreed.
On Friday the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count will be released, showing the amount of operating oil rigs in the US.
Pivot:70.75Support:69.669.268.7Resistance:70.7571.271.8Scenario 1:short positions below 70.75 with targets at 69.60 & 69.20 in extension.Scenario 2:above 70.75 look for further upside with 71.20 & 71.80 as targets.Comment:as long as the resistance at 70.75 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 69.60 remains high.
US Tech 100
Equity indices in the US broadly closed higher on Thursday, with the NASDAQ (US Tech 100) reaching a new all-time high. Data released on Thursday showed that New Jobless Claims decreased to 214 thousand that week and the Treasury Budget had a deficit of $74.9 billion in June (expected $91 billion deficit).
Especially technology (US Technology ETF +1.67%) and biotech (US Biotech ETF +1.49%) performed well in the trading session, while bank stocks (US Banks ETF -0.96%) traded overall lower.
US listed stocks of the Chinese search engine and technology company Baidu (+3.98%) traded higher, close the level seen in June, before the stock price plunged as key people left the company. Baidu unveiled a cooperation with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) on artificial intelligence and as the company also announced the production of the 100th autonomous shuttle, produced in a cooperation with Chinese vehicle manufacturers.
Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) (+1.81%) traded higher after showing strong earnings for Q2. On Friday multiple banks, such as Citigroup (NYSE:C) and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) are set to release their quarterly earnings
Pivot: 7335 Support: 7335 7288 7247.75 Resistance: 7475.75 7526 7565 Scenario 1: long positions above 7335.00 with targets at 7475.75 & 7526.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 7335.00 look for further downside with 7288.00 & 7247.75 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further upside.
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