iFOREX Daily Analysis : August 18 ,2017
iFOREX | Aug 18, 2017 06:31AM ET
The dollar traded higher against other major currencies on Thursday, as the White House denied rumors that Gary Cohn who is the National Economic Council Chairman would resign while upbeat jobs and manufacturing data boosted sentiment.
The Mexican peso was down by more than one percent against the U.S. dollar as renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) continued. The United States drew a hard line, demanding major concessions from its trading partners with the goal of reducing the trade deficits with Mexico and Canada and helping the U.S. auto industry create value within the country.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, as losses in technology, telecom and basic material sector pushed the indices lower. At closing time of the New York Stock Exchange the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.24%, the S&P 500 index declined 1.54%, and the NASDAQ Composite index lost 1.94%.
Australia has announced plans for a regulation of digital currencies such as Bitcoin being the second nation after Japan interested in intensifying regulations and controls over these new form of currency. The Bitcoin reached a new high of $4484 while closing slightly lower than on Wednesday.
On Friday investors will be looking at the consumer sentiment data published in the U.S. and producer price statistics from Germany. Currency traders will also be watching the inflation statistics released by Canada that day.
EUR/USD
The dollar traded higher against the Euro on Thursday, as the White House rejected rumors that Gary Cohn who is Chairman of the National Economic Council would resign. The dollar also received positive sentiment from positive economic reports on initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity, suggesting the U.S. economy is on track for good third-quarter growth.
The currency pair had its day’s low at $1.1662 following minutes released from the ECB’s July policy meeting showed warning that the recent rise of the euro could obstruct the central bank’s efforts to get inflation closer to its target of below, but close to 2%.
On Friday the publication of the producer price index by the leading common currency country Germany could give further impulses. From the U.S. side the influential figures of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment level will be published.
Pivot: 1.176
Support: 1.169 1.166 1.161
Resistance: 1.176 1.1795 1.1835
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Scenario 1: short positions below 1.1760 with targets at 1.1690 & 1.1660 in extension.
Scenario 2: above 1.1760 look for further upside with 1.1795 & 1.1835 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.
Gold
Gold prices traded higher in Thursday’s trading session. The minutes of the Fed's July policy meeting released on Wednesday, showed that some policymakers believed the Fed could afford to avoid further rate increases until it will be clear that the trend of soft inflation is temporarily only.
Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-interest paying assets such as gold.
Gold traders will look at economic sentiment data from published consumer sentiment data in the U.S. while also vigilantly observing the U.S. foreign and domestic policy situation.
Pivot: 1281
Support: 1281 1276.4 1271
Resistance: 1294 1297 1302
Scenario 1: long positions above 1281.00 with targets at 1294.00 & 1297.00 in extension.
Scenario 2: below 1281.00 look for further downside with 1276.40 & 1271.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is supported by a rising trend line.
WTI Oil
Oil settled higher on Thursday, as U.S. data showed that crude supplies fell the most in eleven months, while production rose to a more than two-year high. Oil broke a three-day losing streak, as traders appeared to take advantage of lower crude prices, following a fall on Wednesday, after a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed U.S. production hit a two-year high.
Total crude-oil production rose to 9.502 million barrels (mbl) per day, an increase of 0.79 mbl per day compared to last week, the EIA announced. That was the highest weekly output figure since July 2015, countering the bullish oil inventories statistics
Oil traders will look at the Baker Hughes oil rig count data published on Friday.
Pivot: 47.47
Support: 46.45 45.9 45.4
Resistance: 47.47 47.97 48.45
Scenario 1: short positions below 47.47 with targets at 46.45 & 45.90 in extension.
Scenario 2: above 47.47 look for further upside with 47.97 & 48.45 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
US 500
U.S stocks fell rapidly on Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting its lowest level in a month, as intensifying worries about the Trump administration's ability to push through its agenda upset investors. Stocks began to lose ground following speculation regarding a possible departure of White House Economic Adviser Gary Cohn.
Cisco fell almost 4% on Thursday after posting lower quarterly profit and sales data. Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) on the other hand again topped investor’s expectations with positive 56% year-over-year growth and was 2.8% up contrary to the negative market sentiment.
On Friday investors will be looking at consumer sentiment data published by the University of Michigan.
Pivot: 2446
Support: 2423 2415.5 2408
Resistance: 2446 2455 2462
Scenario 1: short positions below 2446.00 with targets at 2423.00 & 2415.50 in extension.
Scenario 2: above 2446.00 look for further upside with 2455.00 & 2462.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is capped by a bearish trend line.
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