iFOREX Daily Analysis : August 17,2018
iFOREX | Aug 17, 2018 05:05AM ET
With the prospect of further negotiations between China and the US regarding the ongoing trade issues, the Chinese Yuan (CNH) dipped to the lowest level this week. The move is also attributing to actions by Chinese authorities, which removed liquidity from the offshore traded Yuan (CNH), as Chinese banks will not able to deposit or loan offshore currency.
Gold recovered from its lowest point since January 2017 closed even by a minimal margin higher on Thursday in again a very volatile trading session. Other commodities such as oil or platinum also recovered from their lows.
Equity indices traded higher with talks regarding the escalating the trade conflict between the US and China possibly in sight later this month. While most US equity indices had their best day in weeks, the NASDAQ (US Tech 100) closed almost unchanged due to weak semiconductor stock performance.
Cryptocurrencies are showing a strong upwards move following the recent slump with major cryptocurrencies overall seen higher as Bitcoin reached the $6,500 mark and Ethereum is trading around its resistance from Wednesday at around $300. However it was also reported that and increasing amount of bets on falling cryptocurrency values are seen, with the Bitfinex exchange seeing double the bets on falling prices compared to the beginning of the month.
On Friday the European Union and Canada will release their price inflation data, while in the US data on E-Commerce Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment and Leading Indicators will be released.
EUR/USD
With the weakening Dollar, the Euro was able to recover some of the losses seen in the previous days. Last week the Euro came under pressure due to the crisis in Turkey, as fear mounted that due to the exposure of some European Banks, such as BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP) and UniCredit to the Turkish market where it was speculated that a further breakdown in Turkey could spread to the Euro zone.
On Thursday the European level of Merchandise Trade was reported lower at €16.7 bn. for June (previous €16.9 bn.). US data was mixed with the Philadelphia Fed General business Conditions level at 11.9 missing the expectations of 22.5 for August and Housing starts at 1.17 million below the expected 1.27 million, while Jobless new claims were slightly lower at 212,000 (expected 215,000).
On Friday in the EU the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices will be released, while in the US data on E-Commerce and Consumer Sentiment will become available.
Pivot:1.135Support:1.1351.1331.13Resistance:1.141.1431.1475Scenario 1:long positions above 1.1350 with targets at 1.1400 & 1.1430 in extension.Scenario 2:below 1.1350 look for further downside with 1.1330 & 1.1300 as targets.Comment:the RSI shows upside momentum.
Get The News You Want
Gold
Gold modestly recovered from its 19-months low seen on Thursday, when other commodities were also seeing significant pressure, but is still having its worst week for 2018. As it stands gold would close for the 6th consecutive week lower. The recovery comes amid a weaker Dollar, which makes gold less expensive in non-Dollar economies.
Precious and industrial metals, which are also used in electronics or such as Palladium and Platinum in cars were seeing pressure, attributed to fears over a global slowdown amid a tense stance on trade from the US and overall strength of the Dollar.
One key figure about the gold market is the report by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which releases on Fridays the Commitments of Traders (COT) report regarding futures traded at regulated exchanges. Last Friday the figure was again lower, now at only 12,700 net speculative positions, compared to 81,400 net speculative positions a month earlier.
Pivot:1182Support:116811601154Resistance:118211891195Scenario 1:short positions below 1182.00 with targets at 1168.00 & 1160.00 in extension.Scenario 2:above 1182.00 look for further upside with 1189.00 & 1195.00 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed to bearish.
WTI Oil
After falling to an 8-weeks low, oil moderately recovered and closed lower on Thursday. However with the recent slump in the commodities market, WTI oil is on track to close the week for the 3rd time in a row lower.
The reported move that Beijing and Washington are going to talk about their trade differences again later this month could have eased the market sentiment as many analysts point out, that an expanding trade war would be a significant deterrent to stable global growth.
As a recent development it was announced that workers at 3 platforms in the North Sea of the company Total will go on strike for a day on August 20.
On Friday the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count will be released, which indicated the level of operating oil rigs.
Pivot:64.9Support:64.964.4564Resistance:65.766.1366.55Scenario 1:long positions above 64.90 with targets at 65.70 & 66.13 in extension.Scenario 2:below 64.90 look for further downside with 64.45 & 64.00 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed to bullish.
US 30
US indices strongly recovered after the recent worries, with especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US 30) having one of the best days in months. However the NASDAQ (US Tech 100) closed only marginally higher due to worries about the chip sector. Chip makers’ stocks were overall seen lower (US Semiconductors ETF -0.25%), while almost all other sectors showed gains, spearheaded by banks (US Banks ETF +1.53%) and non-cyclical (US Non-cyclicals ETF +1.47%) stocks.
Nvidia (-0.58%) shares fell significantly in an after-hours move, following disappointing earnings being released. The company expected the contribution of cryptocurrency mining related sales to fall for this year, but now is expecting no contribution at all from that market segment.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) (-1.07%) continued to face pressure as it is now reported that the US SEC is investigating the company over its claims regarding the production of its embattled Model 3.
On Friday in the US data on E-Commerce Retail Sales, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Leading Indicators statistics will be released.
Pivot: 25500 Support: 25500 25415 25335 Resistance: 25660 25735 25820 Scenario 1: long positions above 25500.00 with targets at 25660.00 & 25735.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 25500.00 look for further downside with 25415.00 & 25335.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.