iFOREX Daily Analysis : April 13,2018
iFOREX | Apr 13, 2018 05:03AM ET
After four consecutive days with a declining Dollar, the Greenback recovered against other major currencies, with the US Dollar Index (USDX) closing 0.29% higher.
While the Russian Ruble (RUB) was under significant pressure at the beginning of the week due to US sanctions against certain Russian entities, the Ruble recovered significantly on Thursday, which was attributed to rising oil prices.
Gold retraced from the high seen on Wednesday, driven by possible cooling of the tense situation surrounding Syria, but also due to the rising Treasury yields, following the publication of the FOMC minutes, where which indicated that the economy remains strong, so a case for rate hikes remains. Oil however settled at a new 3 year high, driven by the tensions in the Middle-East region.
US equities closed overall higher, driven by gains especially in banks and semiconductors. The Jobless New Claims reported on Thursday were almost as expected at 233 thousand (230 thousand expected) and down from 242 thousand in the previous month.
Cryptocurrencies rallied on Thursday at around 11 AM GMT, with the Bitcoin gaining over 1,000 points before retracing gradually. Most other cryptocurrencies were also trading stronger. ‘EOS’ was one of the best performing cryptocoins on Thursday and in the past days, surpassing Litecoin in market capitalization.
On Friday Germany publishes CPI statistics and the European Union its Merchandise Trade data. In the US the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be published.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD traded lower for the first day this week as minutes from the March gathering of policymakers from the European Central Bank (ECB) expressed concerns about the risk of a strong Euro and a trade war with the United States. The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) was as expected at +1.0% m/m, while European Industrial Production (IP) was significantly below expectations at -0.8% m/m (expected +0.2%)
On Friday in Germany the CPI statistics and in the European Union the Merchandise Trade will be published.
Pivot:1.235Support:1.231.22851.226Resistance:1.2351.23751.2395Scenario 1:short positions below 1.2350 with targets at 1.2300 & 1.2285 in extension.Scenario 2:above 1.2350 look for further upside with 1.2375 & 1.2395 as targets.Comment:the RSI is capped by a bearish trend line.
Gold
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Gold retraced sharply from the high seen on Wednesday as the stand-off between the US and Russia seemed to ease down to some extent. Russia has military bases in Syria and could be affected by an airstrike against Syrian installation. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting indicated that policymakers believed that the economic outlook remains positive and the inflation was likely moving towards the 2 percent target range. With this expectation of rising rates, the 10-Year US Treasuries climbed towards a week high.
For Friday a speech by the FOMC board member Bullard is expected and also the JOLTs job openings statistic from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Pivot:1342.25Support:13311326.751321.5Resistance:1342.251347.51353Scenario 1:short positions below 1342.25 with targets at 1331.00 & 1326.75 in extension.Scenario 2:above 1342.25 look for further upside with 1347.50 & 1353.00 as targets.Comment:the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
WTI Oil
Despite the gradual easing of the concerns over an US strike on Syria, WTI oil settled at a three year high. The situation in other parts of the Middle-East, such as between Saudi-Arabia, Yemen and Iran remains volatile, which is why a possible ‘fear premium’ is added. A potential factor was the release of the Monthly Oil Market Report by the OPEC, where the organization estimated higher global production in competing economies, especially the United States but also rising global demand for oil.
On Friday the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count will be released, indicating the number of operating oil rigs in the United States. At the last reporting it was reported that the number of operating oil rigs rose by 10.
Pivot:67.4Support:65.865.264.35Resistance:67.46868.8Scenario 1:short positions below 67.40 with targets at 65.80 & 65.20 in extension.Scenario 2:above 67.40 look for further upside with 68.00 & 68.80 as targets.Comment:the RSI calls for a slump.
US 500
US equity indices closed higher with banks (US Banks ETF +1.86%) and chip-makers (US Semiconductors ETF +1.64%) pushing the average higher.
Delta Airlines (NYSE:DAL) (+3.17%) was up, following better than expected earnings. However rising costs are a concern for the airline. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) (-2.20%) was criticized for withdrawing from the official NTSB investigation into a deadly crash in March this year.
Among other companies, on Friday JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) are set to publish their quarterly earnings. More earnings are due the following week. Also on Friday the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released.
Pivot: 2639 Support: 2639 2625 2612 Resistance: 2685 2700 2713 Scenario 1: long positions above 2639.00 with targets at 2685.00 & 2700.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2639.00 look for further downside with 2625.00 & 2612.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance. The index broke above a symmetrical triangle pattern.
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