IForex Daily : May 15, 2014
iFOREX | May 15, 2015 05:44AM ET
The dollar continues to drop, reaching four-month lows most major currencies on Thursday, despite the fact that jobless claims figures from the U.S fell unexpectedly last week. The U.S. Department of Labor that individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending May 9 fell by 1,000 to 264,000 when analysts expected a rise by 10,000 to 275,000. However, this failed to spark market confidence regarding the health of the economy and combined with the weak report on U.S. producer prices the greenback is kept under pressure. The euro was supported as German and U.S. bond yields rose to the highest level in five months as the major selloff in global bond markets continues. German bond yields act as benchmarks for European financial markets and an increase in yields provides strong support to the euro. Today the U.S. will be closing the week with reports on industrial production, manufacturing activity in the New York region and consumer sentiment.
EUR/USD
The euro rose to three-month highs against the dollar on Thursday, as investors took into consideration the positive growth data from Europe earlier in the week in comparison with weak U.S. growth and retail sales data from the U.S. Despite the slightly better than expected unemployment claims from the U.S, the pair reached 1.144, the highest level since early February. Elsewhere, Greek officials said Thursday it could request an emergency meeting of euro zone finance ministers at the end of the month, at which Greece hopes to reach a deal on reform measures needed to unlock a critical stimulus package. For today, investors will be focusing on industrial production data from the U.S., on manufacturing activity in the New York region and on consumer sentiment.
Pivot
1.134
Support
1.134
1.126
1.1195
Resistance
1.145
1.153
1.1645
Scenario 1: Long positions above 1.134 with targets @ 1.145 & 1.153 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 1.134 look for further downside with 1.126 & 1.1195 as targets.
Comment: The pair has rebounded above its support and remains on the upside.
XAU/USD
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Some profit taking took place as Gold posted a slight drop on Friday after the metal reached three month highs on weak inflation data from the U.S. With the continued focus on the timing of a rate rate hike by the Federal Reserve, gold prices were supported by recent data indicating a slowdown in U.S growth, including a decrease in exports, a drop import prices and in retail sales, and a contraction in GDP. Gold traders will be watching closely on manufacturing and industrial production data from the U.S, but the main focus will go to the consumer confidence index.
Pivot
1212
Support
1212
1200
1191
Resistance
1237
1245
1255
Scenario 1: Long positions above 1212 with targets @ 1237 & 1245 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 1212 look for further downside with 1200 & 1191 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
OIL/USD
Oil prices pulled back on Thursday as the global supply problem weighed on prices while future contracts head towards expiration. Some bullish signals were given by the market recently including recent drops in U.S. inventories, rising demand in Asia and Middle East due to unrest, however the market remains oversupplied as OPEC is still increasing production and claiming its share of the market. Prices briefly received support from news that Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired warning shots over Singapore-flagged oil tanker in international waters in the Gulf in order to settle legal disputes. A U.S. summit with Persian Gulf nations at Camp David will be in focus for further indications on the global oil production outlook.
Pivot
60.85
Support
59.3
58.75
58.15
Resistance
60.85
61.85
62.6
Scenario 1: Short positions below 60.85 with targets @ 59.3 & 58.75 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 60.85 look for further upside with 61.85 & 62.6 as targets.
Comment: As long as 60.85 is resistance, likely decline to 59.3.
S&P 500
U.S. stocks posted a sharp rise on Thursday as the dollar weakens, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high. The Technology, Health Care and Consumer Goods sectors posted big gains as multinationals will now benefit from a weaker dollar, and this led the S&P 500 more than 1% higher, slightly above its previous record of reached in late-April. The top performer on the S&P 500 was Computer Sciences, which gained 4.29%. Today the U.S. will be closing the week with reports on industrial production, manufacturing activity in the New York region and consumer sentiment.
Pivot
2039
Support
2039
1972
1904
Resistance
2125
2180
2215
Scenario 1: Long positions above 2039 with targets @ 2125 & 2180 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 2039 look for further downside with 1972 & 1904 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is around its neutrality area at 50% The index is shaping an ascending triangle pattern.
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) stock posted a sharp rise on Thursday as analysts point out to its strong mobile business. The social networking giant received very good comments from analysts regarding its strong mobile business. J.P. Morgan, said Facebook remained its "top pick" as recent data from comScore found that users had strong engagement with the site, especially on mobile. Users accessing the site via their smartphones reached 24% in April, up two percentage points March, and according to J.P. Morgan this increase is "meaningfully higher" and stood far above other social networking services.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), according to a report, stated Facebook is the main driver of the "continued movement of ad dollars to mobile.".
Pivot
86.2
Support
77
73.3
70.35
Resistance
86.2
89.5
94.5
Scenario 1: Short positions below 86.2 with targets @ 77 & 73.3 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 86.2 look for further upside with 89.5 & 94.5 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 86.2 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 77 remains high.
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