IForex Daily : December 17, 2014
iFOREX | Dec 17, 2014 05:37AM ET
Oil prices continued the decline but Global equity markets ended mixed on Tuesday as investors bought cheap energy stocks and put money on a U.S. central bank expressing caution in the middle of a strong market turmoil ignited by crude's collapse. Russia's huge emergency rate hike yesterday overnight failed to stabilize the Ruble's decline, which shook markets, while demand for safe-haven instruments increased as a collapse in Russian financial markets sent investors hurrying for top-rated assets.
EUR/USD
The Dollar fell against major currencies on Tuesday on expectations that the Federal Reserve would take a cautious tone on monetary policy.
EURUSD closed at $1.25103, up 0.55%, yesterday in our platform.
Traders booked profits from the U.S. currency recent gains on the view that the Fed would maintain a dovish stance on raising interest rates, partly in response to lower Oil prices, at the end of a two-day meeting Wednesday.
Today, expect markets to pay extra attention to the Euro zone HICP and to move with the U.S. CPI and the FOMC announcement, forecasts, and the Fed Chair press conference.
Pivot
1.252
Support
1.2435
1.241
1.238
Resistance
1.252
1.257
1.2595
Scenario 1: Short positions below 1.252 with targets 1.2435 & 1.241 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 1.252 look for further upside with 1.257 & 1.2595 as targets.
Comment: The pair has broken below its support and should face further weakness.
USD/RUB
The Ruble dropped as low as 78 on Tuesday, despite Moscow's sharp hike in interest rates. The most severe intraday fall since Russia's 1998 currency crisis and debt default destroyed investors' appetite for risk.
USDRUB finished at $69.73, up 17.13% yesterday in our platform.
Today, expect the markets to move with the U.S. CPI and the FOMC announcement, forecasts, and the Fed Chair press conference, and to pay extra attention to the EIA Petroleum Status Report.
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XAU/USD
Spot Gold ended yesterday lower, with prices falling back below the key $1,200.00 level, in a volatile day that saw prices trade both sides.
Spot Gold closed at $1,198.11, down 0.04% or $0.47, yesterday in our platform.
Safe-haven demand early in the session gave way to selling pressure on ideas upcoming FOMC data will favor the U.S. monetary policy hawks. Later, as the U.S. stock indexes posted solid rebounds from their daily lows downside price pressure was put on Gold.
Today, expect the markets to move with the U.S. CPI and the FOMC announcement, forecasts, and the Fed Chair press conference.
Pivot
1,210
Support
1,187
1,177
1,168
Resistance
1,210
1,224
1,230
Scenario 1: Short positions below 1,210 with targets 1,187 & 1,177 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 1,210 look for further upside with 1,224 & 1,230 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed.
OIL/USD
WTI Crude Oil in New York traded lower near a five-year minimum as Russia reiterated that it will keep crude production steady next year, following OPEC's strategy to refrain from reducing supply to tackle a global surplus.
WTI futures closed at $55.38, down 1054%, or $0.3 in our platform yesterday.
Output from Russia, the world's largest crude producer, will be similar to this year's 10.6 million barrels a day. Iran is said to be offering shipments to Asia at the deepest discount in at least 14 years, taking a cue from Saudi Arabia in cutting price differentials.
Today, expect the markets to move with the U.S. CPI and the FOMC announcement, forecasts, the Fed Chair press conference, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report.
Pivot
56.75
Support
53.5
52
50
Resistance
56.75
58.7
59.6
Scenario 1: Short positions below 56.75 with targets 53.5 & 52 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 56.75 look for further upside with 58.7 & 59.6 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 56.75 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 53.5 remains high.
DOW/USD
The U.S. stock market suffered some of its most violent price swings since mid-October on Tuesday, as investors wrestled with volatility in Oil and growing turmoil in Russia, exemplified by a spectacular decline of the Ruble.
The Dow Future closed at 17,106.5, down 0.69% in our platform, yesterday.
The Dollar and Oil prices swung with traders betting on different outcomes from the key Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which got underway yesterday and concludes today.
Today, expect markets to move with the U.S. CPI and the FOMC announcement, forecasts, the Fed Chair press conference, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report.
Pivot
16,970
Support
16,970
16,850
16,760
Resistance
17,215
17,370
17,500
Scenario 1: Long positions above 16,970 with targets 17,215 & 17,370 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 16,970 look for further downside with 16,850 & 16,760 as targets.
Comment: A support base at 16,970 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation. Prices are expected to bounce of a bearish channel lower boundary.
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