IForex Daily : April 09, 2014
iFOREX | Apr 09, 2015 03:12AM ET
At Wednesday's minutes, the members of the Federal Open Market Committee appeared to be divided on whether to raise interest rates at its June meeting. Following weaker than expected GDP growth and a disappointing U.S. March jobs report, expectations increased that a rate hike will be delayed. In addition, inflation has been running below the Fed's 2% objective for nearly three years and some officials saw this trend persisting, citing falling energy prices and a strong U.S. dollar, which lowers the cost of imported goods. Elsewhere, Russia president Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Greece Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras did not ask for aid from Russia during his visit to Moscow this week. Ahead of a Thursday deadline for a 460 million euro payment to the IMF, the Greek Prime Minister's visit increases speculation that Greece may have requested a stimulus package from Russia in exchange for helping convince the European Union to ease sanctions against Moscow.
EUR/USD
The euro fell slightly against the dollar after the FOMC meeting despite the fact that Federal Reserve officials appeared to be divided on whether they might raise interest rates in June, and recent soft economic data could make a move in June even less likely. Several officials thought it would be better to wait longer and some thought the Fed might need to wait until 2016. For today the U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Market participants will also be watching closely on whether Greece will keep its promise to repay its creditors on time to avoid bankruptcy.
Pivot
1.083
Support
1.0745
1.071
1.065
Resistance
1.083
1.089
1.096
Scenario 1: Short positions below 1.083 with targets @ 1.0745 & 1.071 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 1.083 look for further upside with 1.089 & 1.096 as targets.
Comment: The pair stands below its resistance and remains under pressure.
XAU/USD
The decline in the price of gold deepens after minutes from the Federal Reserve's most-recent meeting showed the central bank's members were divided on whether to raise interest rates in June. The metal fell once more below the $1200 per ounce level despite the fact that expectations rose for a delayed rate hike. More support may come for the metal from renewed uncertainty regarding Greece. Market participants will be watching closely on whether Greece will keep its promise to repay its creditors on time to avoid bankruptcy. In addition, the U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims providing more clues on the strength of the economy.
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Pivot
1207.6
Support
1190.6
1178.3
1168.3
Resistance
1207.6
1212.4
1224
Scenario 1: Short @ 1197.01 with targets @ 1190.6 & 1178.3 in extension.
Scenario: Above 1207.6 look for further upside with 1212.4 & 1224 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1207.6 is resistance, likely decline to 1190.6.
OIL/USD
A 10.95 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, reaching 482.4 million, the biggest gain in 14 years combined with Saudi Arabia's oil production of 10.3 million barrels a day in March had added significant pressures on crude oil prices on Wednesday pushing them towards $50 per barrel. Overall sentiment for the price of the fuel remains to the downside due to high production and very weak demand. "We are seeing little sign of economic acceleration... and anticipate a meaningful decline in oil production is still a couple of months away," U.S. Bank Wealth Management said.
Pivot
53.1
Support
49.8
48.2
47.1
Resistance
53.1
54.1
55.7
Scenario 1: Short positions below 53.1 with targets @ 49.8 & 48.2 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 53.1 look for further upside with 54.1 & 55.7 as targets.
Comment: As long as 53.1 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
DOW/USD
U.S. stocks ended Wednesday in positive territory, as gains in the Healthcare, Consumer Services and Financials sectors supported the main stock indices. The Dow reacted positively to the third largest oil and gas merger ever, even as declining crude prices weighed on the energy sector. Hoping to challenge Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) for dominance of the global oil markets, Royal Dutch Shell (LONDON:RDSa) plc. announced a $70 billion merger with BG on Wednesday. According to Reuters the new company is expected to produce more oil and gas than ExxonMobil by 2018. Markets are looking ahead to 1st quarter earnings season while for today the focus is shifted on Greece which is on a deadline to repay 460 million euro to the IMF
Pivot
17585
Support
17585
17040
16330
Resistance
18290
18900
19200
Scenario 1: Long positions above 17585 with targets @ 18290 & 18900 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 17585 look for further downside with 17040 & 16330 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
APPLE
Shares of Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL). dropped on Wednesday, after Societe Generale (PARIS:SOGN) downgraded the technology giant, due to concerns over smartphone selling prices and the negative effects that currency movements may have on the multinational company. Analysts cut their rating to hold, after being at buy for the last 10 months, but kept the stock price target at $130 which is higher than where the stock is currently trading. It was estimated that average selling prices of iPhones declined to $651 each during the March quarter from $687 in the December quarter, as the number of iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus units sold declined.
Pivot
124.3
Support
124.3
122
120.5
Resistance
129.6
131.4
133.6
Scenario 1: Long positions above 124.3 with targets @ 129.6 & 131.4 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 124.3 look for further downside with 122 & 120.5 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.
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