I See Oil Prices Falling Below $40 Per Barrel
Chris Vermeulen | Oct 04, 2019 04:22PM ET
There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening. Our October 2018 gold price predictions are still playing out accurately – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.
Today, we want to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system expectations for crude oil. In a research post we made back in July, we warned that oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking lower in November. Ultimately, oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019.
We believe the support level near $50.50 will act as a temporary level of support over the next 3-to-10+ days before a moderate price breakdown below this level begins. Our expectations for November 2019 are that oil prices may fall to levels below $45 ppb on a deeper downward price move, yet will recover to levels near $47 near December 2019/January 2020.
We also think that the ultimate target for crude prices is to levels below $40 ppb and that price may attempt to make a move toward these level as early as January 2020. Our ADL predictive modeling system has shown us the path for oil prices and, so far, the real price has mirrored this expectation almost perfectly – even the high price in September aligned with our expected high price near $60.
Weakness should dominate in late October and early November – carrying all the way through most of November. So pay attention to the ADL chart above and our July 10 predictions. Oil will target levels below $40 by late December 2019 or early January 2020.
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All it will take is for this $50.50 support level to be tested and breached for the next price move to begin. Be prepared for the volatility that may hit oil prices near this critical support level and be prepared for the next move to levels near $44~47.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive if handled properly.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding, not only in metals and stocks but globally and that some of these supercycles will last for years.
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