How To Trade Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls
Jani Ziedins | Aug 05, 2016 02:16AM ET
The S&P 500 extended its streak of listless summer trade Thursday as we remained stuck inside a tight trading range stretching back several weeks. Tuesday’s selloff was the biggest move in a while, but even that failed to motivate traders to trade.
Barring a calamity, we shouldn’t expect volume to pick up until after institutional money managers return to work after Labor Day. In the meantime little guys will continue ruling the roost.
Their erratic trade drives these wild intraday swings, but they have so little money that these gyrations peter out hours later. Up five-points, down-five points, repeat until thoroughly seasick.
Friday morning we get the monthly employment report. Unless it is truly shocking, we shouldn’t expect much from it. The first six-months of the year we were stuck in a half-empty mood. B
ut now that we’ve held near all-time highs for a month despite numerous bearish headlines, it seems we shifted to a half-full mindset. That means the market will likely cheer a strong employment report because it means the economy continues to improve.
If July hiring is weaker than expected, that means interest rates will stay low for longer. No matter which way employment goes, owners will have the excuse they need to keep holding. When owners don’t sell, prices remain firm.
The Brexit and all the other negative news we received this summer failed to rattle owners’ resolve and I don’t expect anything we hear Friday morning will change that. If prices fall in a knee-jerk reaction, that will be yet another buying opportunity.
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