How Rare Are Municipal Bankruptcies? A Lot Rarer Than You Think

 | Nov 04, 2015 02:06PM ET


The odds of being struck by lightning are an insignificant 0.03 percent, yet many people still worry it might happen to them. There’s even a name for it: astraphobia. Similarly, some muni bond investors worry about municipal bankruptcies, based on recent high-profile cases, even though such cases occur very infrequently. Think Orange County, California, in 1994; Jefferson County, Alabama, in 2011; or Detroit, Michigan, in 2013, the largest in U.S. history.

Today, federal legislators are debating whether to allow debt-strapped Puerto Rico, which owes around $70 billion, to file for bankruptcy, something even U.S. states are not permitted to do. These cases can sometimes lead to splashy headlines, which contributes to the misperception that they happen much more often than they actually do.

What municipal bond investors need to know is that, though there’s risk involved with any investment, municipal defaults are rare, and significantly rarer than their corporate counterparts. Between 1937, when the U.S. Bankruptcy Code went into effect, and 2008, approximately 600 municipalities out of 90,000 filed for Chapter 9 protection. Governing magazine estimates that between 2008 and 2012, “only one of every 1,668 eligible general-purpose local governments filed for bankruptcy protection.” That amounts to a barely-there 0.06 percent—nearly in line with the odds of being struck by lightning—and includes everything from Aaa-rated municipalities to junk.

So far this year, only three local governments have filed, a 75 percent decline compared to 2012.

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One of the main reasons why municipal bankruptcies are so rare is because the hurdles are set exceedingly high. Unlike an individual or corporation, a city can’t independently arrive at the decision to file. Federal law allows local governments to file, but the municipality’s state government must also permit it. Strings ordinarily come attached.

Currently, only 12 states authorize municipalities to file for bankruptcy without conditions—Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas and Washington State. Another 12 states permit filing only when certain conditions have been met.