How My 10 Predictions For 2021 Fared
Michael Kramer | Dec 23, 2021 11:52PM ET
Before I roll out my 10 predictions for 2022, I thought we could first go back and look at how the predictions for 2021 panned out. I wrote the 10 predictions for 2021Atlanta Fed model, the US economy should grow by more than 5% this year. CORRECT
Yes inflation rates were hotter than expected in the first half of the year, but they did not come down in the second half of the year. I will give myself half credit for this prediction- 1/2
The 10-year yield as of Dec. 23 was trading at 1.49%, so this is an easy CORRECT.
The dollar index rallied sharply in the second half of 2021 and was trading last week at 96.06 an easy CORRECT.
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Gold never got anywhere close to my prediction and although it appears it will finish the year lower, I give myself an INCORRECT.
Platinum never got close to my target of $1600, so this goes as an INCORRECT.
Technology did struggle to start the year, with the Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund (NYSE:XLK) actually trading lower through March, and underperforming the S&P 500 for the first half of the year. I will give myself CORRECT for this one.
The BKK has had a really good year, but was not THE best performing sector. It was one of the best-performing sectors, but that doesn’t cut it. So this was INCORRECT.
Clearly, the Fed stuck with the term “transitory” until the bitter end, as well as its bond-buying program and zero rate policy. This is an easy CORRECT.
The S&P 500 rallied far more than I expected this year and is an easy INCORRECT
Total for 2021 5 1/2 out of 10. Not bad, considering how hard it is to call the market week to week or month to month, let alone a full year in advance.
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