How Limited Is Current Recovery In Bitcoin, Ethereum?
Günay Caymaz | Oct 28, 2022 09:32AM ET
- The two largest cryptocurrencies are trading lower today after a very positive first half of the week
- ETH managed to break out of its sideways channel, while BTC tested its nearest resistance
- However, the Fed's rate decision next week remains the most important factor for the crypto market and will likely increase volatility
Bitcoin is nearing its $20,000 support as bears returned yesterday after the cryptocurrency jumped to the $21,000 resistance on Wednesday. Ethereum, on the other hand, hit its resistance at the $1,565 level after finally breaking its sideways channel upward.
h2 Bitcoin /h2While Bitcoin saw significant demand earlier in the week, its upward trajectory was halted around $20,600 - $21,100, with an increase in trading volume in favor of the sellers.
The daily BTC/USD chart shows that the world's largest cryptocurrency reacted to the 89-day EMA. This suggests that the medium-term exponential moving average has been playing an important role in its bullish movement.
According to the latest situation, the $20,800 level within the resistance area can be followed as the most important obstacle for BTC at the moment.
In the lower zone, the $20,140 level has become an important support. If BTC sees a close above this value, investors may perceive the ongoing retracement since yesterday as a limited movement and move back to the buyer side. Thus, we can see that BTC may move to break the $20,800 resistance again in weekend trading.
On the other hand, an eventual loss of the $20,140 support, followed by hourly closes below the $20,000 psychological level, could also increase panic selling, dissipating this week's positive mood.
If this possibility materializes, BTC can be expected to return to the $18,500 - $19,500 area.
Aside from the technical scenario, traders should mind that the U.S. Fed will announce interest rates in the first week of November, likely increasing volatility before and after the meeting.
While the U.S. central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, the market would very much welcome an interest rate hike below this rate, triggering crypto prices upwards.
However, if the decision comes in line with or above expectations, crypto assets can be expected to dive below $19,500 according to past movements in the volatility that will occur.
h2 Ethereum/h2
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Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin this week, gaining around 10% during the period.
After breaking the resistance of $1,550, Ethereum saw a rapid rise and reached $1,590. Only to reverse lower back to the $1,500 area.
The selling started at the Fib 0.618 correction value, based on ETH's September retracement. This movement gives the impression that the recovery remains limited. However, looking at the short-term price movements, if Ethereum can close the day above $1,500 at Fib 0.5, another upward attack may come in weekend trading.
Accordingly, the resistance of $1,565 should come into play again. In the continuation of the upward movement, the next resistance price will be followed as $1,660.
On the other hand, if the selling that has been going on since yesterday continues predominantly today, the $1,470 - $1,430 - $1,380 levels should work as the closest support levels below $1,500.
As a result, the $1,500 price in the Ethereum market remains an important support. Movements around this price can be decisive for the cryptocurrency's direction. In addition, in the volatile price movement that may occur in the coming days, it will be crucial for ETH to maintain the range of $1,350 - $1,400 not to increase losses further.
Disclosure: The author currently does not own any of the securities mentioned in this article.
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