How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Russian Invasion

As the events in the Ukraine and Crimea have developed at a breakneck pace, there has been much angst expressed in the media. The equity markets have sold off but most of the worries expressed are noise.

I offer my readers another analytical framework from which to view the current geopolitical situation:h2 Conventional wisdom /h2

One analogy that is often used in foreign policy journals in the West's dealings with Russia, formerly the Soviet Union, is that while one side thinks it's playing chess, the other is playing poker. The implication is that we, the West, are playing the wrong game. An alternative interpretation is that both sides can get what they want, it's just up to each side to understand the trade-offs built into their own strategy.

Here's the conventional wisdom interpretation. A recent, widely quoted Great Society without throwing the country into an inflationary spiral and at the same time scarring the American psyche for an entire generation.

My American friends should imagine a scenario where a foreign power, e.g. Cuba, invades Puerto Rico. Yes, this the PR with a history of being a black hole of unsuccessful federal subsidies to foster industry, growth and employment. This is the PR with its teetering finances and near bankrupt status. What should Washington's response be?

1. This is an unacceptable violation of American sovereignty and would be dealt with in the harshest possible manner.
2. Thank you for invading. Please take it.

Disclosure: Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. (“Qwest”). The opinions and any recommendations expressed in the blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions and recommendations of Qwest. Qwest reviews Mr. Hui’s blog to ensure it is connected with Mr. Hui’s obligation to deal fairly, honestly and in good faith with the blog’s readers.”

None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this blog constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Either Qwest or I may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned.

Get The News You Want

Read market moving news with a personalized feed of stocks you care about.

Get The App

Written By: Cam Hui