Holiday Slow Down Begins
Littlefish FX | Dec 20, 2013 07:07AM ET
As the Christmas slowdown starts to take hold we have only a few data points left for the year and in reality these will likely not see much action with liquidity thinning out at a rapid pace. The dollar, although still bullish may see some profit taking ahead of the holidays before a continuation, although with further US data on the 24th, it seems that may wait until next week. After then, the markets will be the playground for bored skeleton staff at trade desk around the world causing spikes in the barely traded range-bound market place.
The dollar has broken out of it’s mildly bearish consolidation channel and in now looking to test recent highs, although the holiday season has slowed the pace right down. Upside remains likely although it is not guaranteed that we will see a fresh high until the new year. I am bullish USD
USD% Index Resistance (EUR/USD support): EUR/USD 1.3600, 1.3580
USD% Index Support (EUR/USD support): EUR/USD 1.3650, 1.3661, 1.3700
The EUR% index still looks heavy, although things seem to have ground to a halt for the holidays already. Not even poor US jobs data on Thursday could get a proper reaction. If we do get a break of a strong level then the thin conditions could make it move. Bias remains bearish.
I am bearish EUR
EUR% Index Resistance: EUR/USD 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3725
EUR% Index Support: EUR/USD 1.3600, 1.3581, 1.3474
The Nikkei has recently rallied strongly which has pushed the JPY% index to a very weak position. With the BOJ now talking about expansion of stimulus, the divergence between USD and JPY will be quite pronounced. As such upside remains likely for USDJPY which should keep the JPY index at lows. We are fast approaching some slightly stiffer support though so if we get there over the holidays it will likely hold and reject.
I am bearish JPY
Get The News You Want
JPY% Index Resistance (USD/JPY Support): USD/JPY 104.00, 103.50, 103.21
JPY% Index Support (USD/JPY Resistance): USD/JPY 105.00, 105.32
Still displaying a suborn reluctance to buckle in the face of dollar strength, the pound remains strong although the thin conditions are eating away at orders and grinding it lower. With an upward revision to year on year GDP, bullish remains the preferable bias, even if we have to wait for next year for a fresh high.
I am bullish GBP for the time being
GBP% Index Resistance: GBP/USD 1.6445, 1.6473
GBP% Index Support: GBP/USD 1.6300, 1.6287, 1.6234
Aussie seems to be trying for a push higher although there seems a theme lately with mild retracements following a strong drop lower, which just get sold again after a few days for another leg lower. This seems likely to happen again. I am bearish AUD
AUD% Index Resistance: AUD/USD 0.8888, 0.8900, 0.8918, 0.8900
AUD% Index Support: AUD/USD 0.9925, 0.8783
The Swiss Franc has fallen from grace somewhat and has sharply dropped as a result of dollar strength to support. This support has held for the time being although the bias remains firmly bearish given the Fed taper. The holiday season may mean that the range doesn’t move too far from current levels for a week or two though. I am bearish CHF
CHF% Index Resistance (USD/CHF support): USD/CHF 0.8938, 0.8881,
CHF% Index Support (USD/CHF resistance): USD/CHF 0.9000, 0.9100, 0.9150
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.