Higher Energy, Higher Inflation?
Gregor Horvat | Sep 12, 2023 04:46AM ET
Stock markets recovered a bit in the last few sessions, so it appears that there is some relief rally ahead of very important US CPI data this week. So the market can be a bit slow for the next few sessions, as inflation data can be very important for the next policy decision by the FED. However, there are some speculations that inflation wont come down, due to higher energy prices, so USD can stay in an uptrend.
In fact, if you look at the chart of Crude oil vs US Cpi you can see some nice and tight correlation with US CPI lagging since its a delayed data. But notice that usually crude oil bottomed or topped out first, so my assumption is that inflation can come up a bit since crude oil has made a strong rebound recently. Also, higher energy prices are one of the reasons why DXY is higher as well, as speculators think that FED should do more with rates to prevent inflation from rising.
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