Heating Oil: Where’s It Headed?

 | Apr 23, 2014 01:42PM ET

See chart 1 below for June Heating Oil futures over the last 12 months. I drew a a support and resistance line in white and one can see that for the most part futures have been in a 15-18 cent trading range. On a 42,000 gallon contract this represents a trading range of $6,300 to $7,560. Stochastics are overbought and futures appear to be starting to roll over. I see red in the last four sessions and prices are probing the 8 day MA ( orange line) as of this post.

I am looking for a 10-15 cent break in the coming weeks. On a futures play get short with stops above the recent highs. This would be the more aggressive route as one would be risking ballpark $1300-1500 per contract. Size accordingly as I would suggest looking to make $1.50 - 2.00 per $1 at risk.

The second chart is an options play that I like buying July $2.90 / 2.80 bear put spreads. 63 days until expiration. Current pricing has July futures at $2.9775. Current delta on this strategy is 15%. 227 points on the spread represents a cost of 227 x $4.20 or $953.40. To talk about specific risk and exits strategies please contact me. This is NOT a buy and fall asleep at the wheel trade.

h3 HO June Futures:/h3