Have You Been Watching Bonds?
Dragonfly Capital | Oct 03, 2018 08:05AM ET
When the Fed announced that they were going to stop Quantitative Easing the Bond market felt a shock. But is soon recovered and stopped bleeding. Then they announced the first interest rate hikes and a plan for more. Another wave ripped through the sea of bonds. But that wave disseminated as well.
Bonds continued to move within a channel that was formed in the 1980’s. It seemed nothing could stop the Bond Market. This one way market for over 30 years crowned some kings and those kings became convinced they were geniuses, not just in the bond market but elsewhere as well. Growing up on Wall Street at the time it was clear that Bond traders felt they were a class above equity traders. A lot of history was made and long term character traits ingrained.
It seems that the call for a Bond market reversal has died down. The media is garnering a lot more eyeballs from politics and ramping up fear of an equity collapse I guess. But have you looked at Bonds recently? The last high in the market was in June 2016. And with the end of September Bond prices closed slightly better than the 2 year lows of August.
You may not have noticed, but they closed below their 100 month SMA for the 5th consecutive month, and 6th out of the last 7. All 6 of these closes below the 100 month SMA were the first time it had happened THIS CENTURY. Nearly 18 years ago Bonds was the last time Bonds were in this position. It seems just as everyone is losing interest in an epic Bond market reversal it is underway.
DISCLAIMER: The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
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