Have Solar Stocks Bottomed?
Michele Schneider | Feb 08, 2024 01:51AM ET
Here is a thought from my Outlook 2024:
Environment - Solar stocks did not have a good 2023. For 2024, we are watching First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) ($FSLR), and the Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:TAN).
TAN new multiyear lo this week but back above the lows of Oct 2023-we are watching 4 an entry.
And so, we entered the ETF before yesterday’s close based on a few technical factors.
First, I like to follow my recommendations from the Outlook that I write in December when I have little bias during the holidays. I just want to find potentially good trades.
Secondly, when I looked at the weekly charts, I saw that the last swing high before the huge parabolic move in TAN in 2020 was exactly where the current price was.
Plus, that level was tested and held a few times in the last week.
That gives us a great risk point.
Then, with the bullish reaction to Enphase earnings and the 13% move higher in SolarEdge (NASDAQ:SEDG), we got rewarded instantly.
What does the daily chart tell us now?
Looking at the Daily chart of TAN, we can determine a lot from the price, but also from our ACP plug-ins, featured on our website as well as on Stockcharts.com.
The price is below the 50-DMA so the phase is bearish.
The gap up today confirms that the price action just above 40.00 could be a reversal bottom in the short term or better, for a longer time.
We will watch for a move above the 50-DMA as a great sign that a bigger move is coming.
The calendar range tells us that TAN might have reversed above the January 6-month calendar range low (red horizontal line). That too is a reliable reversal pattern.
The Leadership against the benchmark underperforms SPY, but not by a lot.
Momentum or Real Motion tells us that there is a slight bullish diversion between momentum and price. TAN’s momentum sits on the 50-DMA, while price is a good way below that 50-DMA.
Overall, this sector, if bottomed out here and mirrors 2020, could move up to 57 area (the 200-DMA) and higher, which gives TAN a very good risk/reward.
h2 ETF Summary/h2- S&P 500 (SPY) 490 support
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 195 pivotal, 190 support to hold
- Dow (DIA) 385 pivotal
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 425 support to hold
- Regional banks (KRE) 45 support
- Semiconductors (SMH) New all-time high
- Transportation (IYT) Now, must hold 266
- Biotechnology (IBB) 135 pivotal -like this sector but has more to prove
- Retail (XRT) 70 back to near term support
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