Have Markets Overreacted to Last Week’s Inflation Data?
MaiMarFX | Nov 14, 2022 03:51AM ET
Risk appetite improved worldwide after signs of cooling in US inflation and the prospects of a dovish tilt by the Federal Reserve. The US dollar weakened against other counterparts. However, markets may have exaggerated last week’s inflation print since a few declines in inflation do not indicate that inflation pressure is finally over and that the Fed is shifting from hawkish to dovish.
The market’s risk appetite could thus be premature with limited upside in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The UK inflation data release will be key for the British pound on Wednesday.
h2 GBP/USD - Technical View/h2The shift in global risk sentiment and the significant dollar sell-off benefitted the pound and sent sterling soaring, lifting it above 1.16 and further to the 1.17-1.19 resistance zone. Sterling bulls should, however, be careful. UK employment and inflation data are on tab this week, leaving the pound vulnerable.
From a technical perspective, the pair is overbought, with the current resistance zone ranging from 1.17 to 1.19. We expect further gains to be limited to a maximum of $ 1.1940. The most likely scenario, in our opinion, is a correction toward 1.15/1.1450.
Speculation for a smaller Fed rate hike in December could keep the pair afloat over the coming weeks. However, the pair is overbought, making it vulnerable to a correction toward the parity level. A bullish breakout above 1.0370 on the other side could see a bullish extension towards 1.06.
Our trading ideas for today:
EUR/USD
- Long at 1.0330
- Short at 1.0290
GBP/USD
- Long at 1.1775
- Short at 1.1740
DAX (GER40)
- Long at 14320
- Short at 14260
Settings for all trades: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40
Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumptions of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be solicitations or recommendations to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.
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