Has The Easy Money Been Made?

Cam Hui | Aug 25, 2014 01:48AM ET

Weekly Trend Model signal
Trend Model signal: Risk-on (upgrade)
Direction of last change: Positive

The real-time (not back-tested) signals of the Trend Model is shown in the chart below:

The low-hanging fruit is gone

In retrospect, calling the bottom two weeks ago was relatively easy (see Barron's tells a similar story. While insider activity have moved into "neutral" territory from a "buy" signal, readings are nowhere in "sell" territory.

For now, the intermediate trend in my Trend Model remains bullishly oriented and I will stay that way until the readings change. My base case scenario therefore calls for a week of choppy consolidation or weakness, to be followed by further rallies to new all-time highs. After that, my technical analysis crystal ball gets a bit cloudy. While my outlook is tilted bullishly, I will write a further post tomorrow detailing my macro concerns about the health of the US equity bull.

Disclosure: Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. ("Qwest"). This article is prepared by Mr. Hui as an outside business activity. As such, Qwest does not review or approve materials presented herein. The opinions and any recommendations expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Qwest.
None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Either Qwest or Mr. Hui may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned.

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Written By: Cam Hui

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