Growth Rate For U.S. Payrolls Continued To Slow In November
James Picerno | Dec 09, 2018 03:51AM ET
The pace of hiring at companies slowed in November, according to this morning’s monthly The Capital Spectator’s projection based on a set of combination forecasts.
The slowdown in job creation aligns with expectations that fourth-quarter GDP growth based on recent data, the incoming numbers are supporting the case for expecting that the acceleration in economic output in the first half of 2018 will fade to a degree in the new year.
“It’s not like [November’s total (government and private) monthly employment gain of] 155,000 is a terrible number, but it’s below what people were looking for,” says Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase. In the wake of strong growth in this year’s first half, “we’re looking for growth to step down this quarter and you should probably also expect to see the labor market cool off some. It’s consistent with the economy coming off what people call a sugar rush.”
In any case, the outlook remains positive, if somewhat softer vs. this year’s stronger first-half profile, notes Paul Ashworth, chief economist at Capital Economics. “This is still a solid gain that suggests economic growth is gradually slowing back towards its potential pace,” says of November’s employment report. He adds that “there is nothing here to suggest the economy is suffering a more sudden downturn.”
The crowd will be watching next week’s key releases to decide if Ashworth’s optimism remains intact. In particular, keep your eye on a pair of hard-data updates for November: retail sales and industrial production, due for release next Friday (Dec. 14).
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