EM Stock Index: Technical Indicators Suggest Scope For Correction
Marc Chandler | Mar 28, 2017 03:41AM ET
This Great Graphic from Bloomberg is a weekly bar chart of MSCI Emerging Market equity index. In H2 15 and H1 16, it carved out a head and shoulders bottom that we identify on the chart. We also drew in the neckline and noted the minimum objective of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.
The index has risen 12.25% in the Q1 17 to approach the objective. Technical indicators also suggest scope for a correction. The Slow Stochastics have turned down. The MACDs are about to cross lower.
A break of 960 would be the first preliminary indication that the impressive rally in Q1 is over and the index has approached levels which are potential turning points. An advance through 971 would suggest that it is premature to pick a top, but we would be attentive to near-term reversals, and like the higher levels as an opportunity to lighten positions.
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