CAD Eyes Trendline
Marc Chandler | Mar 11, 2016 04:10PM ET
The Canadian dollar's advance continues. Neither the widening of US interest-rate differentials nor a poor employment report has managed to buckle the Loonie. Oil and the general risk-on mood trump the other concerns.
In addition, investors are concluding that fiscal stimulus will reduce the possibility of additional monetary stimulus. The implied yield on the June BA futures is now the highest since last June.
This Great Graphic shows the greenback's uptrend since mid 2014. The 10.4% US dollar slide since the multi-year high was reached in late January has brought it within striking distance of that trendline, which was near CAD1.3140 on Friday. A break would target CAD1.30 initially.
Earlier this week, I expressed my concern for the outlook of the Canadian dollar. I remain concerned, believing overtime the interest-rate differential exerts a gravitational pull. However, discipline requires respecting the price action. From a technical perspective, the break of the trendline is significant.
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