Goodbye 2015: What A Disappointment
Econintersect LLC | Dec 20, 2015 02:14AM ET
All pundits need something really good or really bad to write about. Few want to read analysis saying the porridge is just right. 2015 was not overall a good year for USA investors. Economically, the USA saw only weak growth.
Follow up:
In 2014, stocks, home prices, industrial production, and consumer spending annual growth was in the range of 5% or better.
Fast forward to 2015 with reporting and backward revisions for the year still accumulating - the best growth is still only half of 2014 (except home appreciation).
The concern I have is that the more rapid growth rates seen since the end of the Great Recession are now in the rear view window as shown by the relatively poor growth seen in 2015. Loose monetary policy was marginally tightened - but it occurred too late in the year to see any affect. Fiscal spending growth was relatively flat. Consumer spending was the only relative strength inside of GDP. Home price appreciation was very good with more and more homes above water.
Next week I will look into the crystal ball for 2016.
Other Economic News this Week:
The Econintersect Economic Index for December 2015 declined - and remains in the low range of index values seen since the end of the Great Recession. The most tracked sectors of the economy generally showed some growth. Still our economic index remains in a long term decline since late 2014.
h3 Current ECRI WLI Growth Index/h3The market (from Bloomberg) was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 260 K to 278 K (consensus 270,000) vs the 271,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 270,750 (reported last week as 270,750) to 270,500. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.
Get The News You Want
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 Week Average - Seasonally Adjusted - 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line), 2015 (violet line)
Bankruptcies this Week: Cubic Energy, Privately-held Seaboard Realty, Magnum Hunter Resources (aka Petro Resources Corporation), New Gulf Resources
Click here to view the scorecard table below with active hyperlinks
h2 Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:/h2
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.