Gold: Fresh Weakness Probes Below 1208/06 Base
FinFX | Oct 01, 2014 04:43AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro resumed its larger downtrend which was interrupted by narrow consolidation and eventually broke and close below near-term target at 1.2660, Nov 2012 low. Fresh weakness also probed below psychological 1.26 support, on a dip to 1.2569, new two-year low, with subsequent consolidation hovering around 1.26 handle. Bears remain firmly in play and favor further downside, with no significant supports on the way towards 1.2042, July 2012 low. Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.2042/1.3992 ascend at 1.2502, is seen as immediate target, ahead of 261.8% expansion of the wave from 1.3699 at 1.2360 and, low of May 2012, at 1.2287. Corrective actions are expected to find solid barriers at 1.2700/60 zone.
Res: 1.2662; 1.2700; 1.2760; 1.2810
Sup: 1.2600; 1.2569; 1.2502; 1.2450
EUR/JPY
The pair cracked psychological 138 support on yesterday’s fresh acceleration lower, following two-day consolidation, which was capped at 139 zone. Fresh extension lower, which touched Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 135.80/141.20 ascend, signals further downside, with close below 138 handle, required to confirm bearish resumption. Negatively aligned near-term technicals support the notion, with fresh bears to look for 137.60, daily 55SMA; 137.48, daily cloud top and 137.07, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement. Corrective rallies should hold below 139 barrier, also 50% of 140.20/137.92 downleg.
Res: 138.78; 139.11; 139.28; 139.50
Sup: 138.35; 137.92; 137.60; 137.48
GBPUSD
Cable’s overall structure is negative and favors further downside, focusing near-term target at 1.6000, psychological support and 50% retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Descend from 1.6522, 19 Sep high, so far extended to 1.6162, retracing 76.4% of 1.6050/1.6522, coming ticks away from higher low of 16 Sep at 1.6159 and key 1.6050, 10 Sep low, the last obstacle on the way towards 1.6000 target. Corrective rallies were capped under psychological 1.63 barrier, which, should keep the upside protected. Only break above the latter would sideline bears and sparks stronger corrective action.
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Res: 1.6200; 1.6228; 1.6285; 1.6300
Sup: 1.6159; 1.6100; 1.6050; 1.6000
USD/JPY
Fresh rally has eventually cracked psychological 110 barrier, en-route to near-term target at and 110.66, Aug 2008 peak. Last Friday’s Outside Day candle signaled fresh attempts higher, with clearance of 110.00/ 110.66, to focus 112.67, Fibonacci 76.4% of 124.14/75.55 descend. Higher low at 109.54, offers immediate support, ahead of psychological 109 level, where dips should be contained.
Res: 110.07; 110.66; 111.00; 111.50
Sup: 109.54; 109.12; 109.00; 108.46
AUD/USD
The pair maintains negative tone and moved lower, to nearly fully retrace 0.8658/ 0.9503 rally. Fresh extension below near-term consolidation floor, weakened hourly structure, signaling further weakness below 0.8658, which is expected to open immediate targets at 0.8600, round-figure, then 0.8543, 50% retracement of 0.6007/1.1079 and 0.8519, 138.2% Fibonacci expansion of the third wave from 0.9110. The upside action so far looks limited and is expected to ideally hold below 0.87 barrier. Only break above hold below 0.8760 lower platform, would delay bears.
Res: 0.8700; 0.8730; 0.8760; 0.8800
Sup: 0.8661; 0.8658; 0.8600; 0.8543
AUD/NZD
The pair enters corrective phase after strong bulls off 1.0914 low, stalled on approach to near-term target and breakpoint at 1.1293, 05 Sep peak. Corrective pullback, which so far retraced 38.2% of 1.0914/1.1279 rally, should be ideally contained at 1.11, psychological support and the mid-point of the rally, to keep near-term bulls intact for fresh attempt towards 1.1293, break of which to signal resumption of larger rally from 1.0488, Jan 2014 low. Otherwise, extension and close below 1.11 handle, would sideline near-term bulls and look for deeper pullback.
Res: 1.1200; 1.1256; 1.1279; 1.1293
Sup: 1.1139; 1.1100; 1.1061; 1.1000
XAU/USD
Spot Gold ended near-term consolidative phase, as fresh weakness probes below 1208/06 base and looks for initial support at psychological 1200 level. Break lower to signal further weakness and expose 1194, Fibonacci 200% expansion of the third wave which commenced from 1322 lower top. The wave could extend to its 261.8% expansion at 1153, once key med-term supports at 1182/80, June/Dec 2013 lows, are taken out. Corrective attempts should be capped under 1220, yesterday’s high.
Res: 1212; 1215; 1220; 1223
Sup: 1204; 1200; 1194; 1182
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