Gold: Bearish Or Bullish?
Venelin Penchev | Oct 19, 2014 02:54AM ET
Looking at the weekly chart below we can see the price of gold trapped between the flat bottom line and the falling upper line. For the bulls the formation resembles a triple bottom, for the bears - a descending triangle with four already completed legs. Both patterns are still hypothetical, no one has been confirmed yet. Only time will tell who is right, till then we have to wait for a decisive break of one of the trendlines and only after a detailed price - volume analysis to decide whether and when to enter the market. In order to receive some clue about the further direction of the yellow metal we have to look for an alternative view at some related markets.
In general, there is a negative correlation between the greenback and gold, as USD rises, the price of the shiny metal moves lower. Correlations shift, for some period they can turn positive from negative and vice versa, the price of gold and the US Dollar can rise simultaneously in times of uncertainty and geopolitical instability, but for now the tight correlation between both financial instruments is still intact ( shown on EUR/USD overlayed daily chart ) and the price action by the EUR/USD pair could provide an alternative view of gold.
As illustrated on the EUR/USD 2 hours chart, the bounce from the 1.24995 low is choppy and can't be counted impulsively, it has rather a corrective nature and can be labeled ( a ) - ( b ) - ( c ). We can't know whether the corrective set-back will finish soon, or if there would be a more complex and longer lasting move against the prevailing trend, but we could expect after its completion a resumption of the down-trend, dragging down the price of gold.
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Another market, related to gold is silver, both metals move in tandem, gold leads, silver follows. Switching to the silver daily chart, one can see a clear bear flag formation - a signal for a possible continuation of the down-trend by the white metal.
Both gold-related markets - silver and the EUR/USD pair are showing bearish bias, which should refrain traders from opening a long position by the yellow metal for now, current upmove by gold could be its latest bull trap.
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