Gold Update: $1225 Remains Stout Resistance

 | Apr 06, 2015 11:45PM ET

Gold managed to close above its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since February, however, the shooting star candlestick outside the upper Bollinger® Band should serve to give bulls some pause:

The rally stopped just short of the 50% retracement level of the entire January-March decline. $1200-$1205 now becomes support while $1225 continues to be stout resistance.

After reaching a capitulation extreme (bullish) two weeks ago, the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders data shows a great deal of short covering by large speculators in the last couple of weeks which has led to a large decline in open interest:

The ‘easy’ move has been made and from my perch the next large directional move for gold ($25+) is very much a coin flip.

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