Gold Slides Despite Soft US Jobs Report
MarketPulse | Jan 09, 2018 12:48PM ET
Gold has posted considerable losses in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1310.88, down 0.72% on the day. On the release front, JOLTS Jobs Openings was unexpectedly soft, dropping to 5.88 million. This was well short of the estimate of 6.05 million. On Wednesday, the key event of the day is Import Prices.
Gold prices have shown strong gains since mid-December, leaving many investors scratching their heads. A robust US economy and a December rate hike from the Federal Reserve have increased the appetite for risk, and the stock markets have pushed higher since the New Year. This should translate into lower prices for safe-haven gold, but the base metal has jumped on the bandwagon and posted strong gains in early January. On Friday, gold touched a high of $1326, its highest level since mid-September. Will enthusiasm for gold continue? Much will depend on the strength of the US dollar – if the greenback runs into headwinds against the major currencies, gold could resume its rally.
When the Federal Reserve is in the headlines, it’s usually on the topic of interest rates. However, another important parameter is the Fed balance sheet, which has ballooned to $4.2 trillion. Starting this month, the Fed will reduce its portfolio, which grew tremendously during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. However, a strong US economy has allowed the Fed to begin trimming the balance sheet. Incoming Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who takes over in February, has estimated that the balance sheet could drop to anywhere between $2.4 trillion to $2.9 trillion after several years of cuts. Fed policymakers have not indicated a magic number for the balance sheet, but the cuts indicate a vote of confidence in the US economy.
XAU/USD Fundamentals
Tuesday (January 9)
- 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 108.4. Actual 104.9
- 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 6.05M. Actual 5.88M
Wednesday (January 10)
- 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.4%
*All release times are GMT
*Key events are in bold
XAU/USD for Tuesday, January 9, 2018
XAU/USD January 9 at 13:30 EST
Open: 1320.34 High: 1320.55 Low: 1308.87 Close: 1310.48
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XAU/USD Technicals
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1260 | 1285 | 1307 | 1337 | 1375 | 1416 |
- XAU/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair posted considerable losses in European trade and is showing limited movement in North American trade
- 1307 is a weak support line. It could break during the Tuesday session
- 1337 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1307 to 1337
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1307, 1285, 1260 and 1240
- Above: 1337, 1375 and 1416
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
XAU/USD ratio is unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (58%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD reversing directions and moving to higher ground.
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