Will Gold Make Another Trip Lower Post-Fed?
Doug Eberhardt | Dec 14, 2017 12:02AM ET
Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):
Good day all around on Wednesday. Special note that the two new red weekly opposites we played, Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:JNUG) and Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:NUGT), got us an extra 2%+ overall, improving our winning percentage with these.
Economic Data For Thursday:
Core Retail Sales and Initial Jobless Claims.
Stock Market
The markets behaved pretty well on Wednesday. ES did go red at one point, but no momentum. ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (NYSE:UVXY) was all over the place but still hovering around the 11 base. It needs to get over 11.40 for a run. That’s why we are long. Anything can set it off. Otherwise we stop out. Risk vs. reward with it for the simple reason with this market strength, we haven’t seen it fall lower.
Foreign Markets
No trades here at present.
Interest Rates
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:TMF) moved up on Wednesday and ended up 2.15%. Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (NYSE:TMV) may very well take over again post Fed with the Fed’s 3 rate increases next year on the table. Of course, wrong medicine but they don’t know it. They can’t will inflation higher by continuing to raise rates as the CPI isn’t keeping up. Yellen still wants 2% but has failed to accomplish this. Hey Yellen, print trillions more. That will do it.
Energy
Get The News You Want
For oil, we took our profit and then stayed out, despite the bullish news, as we got signals to go the opposite before and after the data came out. Neutral right now. Natural gas had another trip lower before it went higher on Wednesday and then settled up a half a percent. We can’t be confident we have bottomed as there is still the possibility of a move down to the 2.40/2.50 range before a big move up. When I say big, I mean over the current price we are at now and then over 6.90.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
The metals and miners trade paid off for us twice on Wednesday and I wanted to sit on the profit rather than give any back as I think we still get one more downturn in gold to wash our bulls. It may not be what some of you want to hear, but I have called metals and miners pretty good. This is another reason you don’t put all your account in one ETF. Gold still has a date with 1220 and possibly down to 1204. That should be it. USD/JPY will be key still. It took the Fed meeting to have it break 113 and now if we go over 113 again, it may mean Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares (NYSE:JDST) is the trade.
Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):
Today’s Hot Corner:
JNUG, NUGT, ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped (NYSE:BZQ), Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares (NYSE:YINN), VelocityShares 3x Long Silver linked to S&P GSCI Silver ER Exp 14 Oct 2031 (NASDAQ:USLV), Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:LABU), VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude linked to S&P GSCI Crude Oil Excess Return (NYSE:DWT)
(TMF new green weekly)
Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):
JDST, DUST, Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:BRZU), Direxion Daily FTSE CHINA Bear 3x Shares (NYSE:YANG), Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (NYSE:LABD), Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp & Prod Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:GUSH)
(UWT, GUSH, DGLD, DSLV, DUST, JDST new red weekly’s)
Green Weekly’s
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
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