Mingze Wu | Dec 02, 2013 12:16AM ET
Gold Bears just can't get a good break. Despite trading sharply lower 2 weeks ago, last week was less than productive with regard to bearish headway.
Things started out promisingly on Monday though, with prices falling quickly to a low of 1,225 as bears went for the jugular early, seeking blood. However, the resilience of bulls is impressive, with prices moving back up to a high of 1,258 - and more importantly above the prior Friday's close of 1,243. This show of strength by bulls can be explained by the fact that speculators are still playing the QE Taper/No Taper guessing game, coupled with institutions continuing to buy/hold more gold for long-term investment purposes.
Prices didn't do much since, trading sideways with 4 additional swings (around 10+ USD each) during the week , closing around 1,251 by the end of Friday. This shows that both bulls and bears may not be fully convicted in their respective stands, suggesting that we could still see yet more sideways movement this week.
Weekly Chart
That being said, it should be noted that a bearish breakout may not be so forthcoming, especially with Stochastic readings being oversold currently and favoring a longer "resting period" for bears if not a full-on bullish pullback. Hence, it is important that bears do not get ahead of themselves and start selling now as previous weeks have shown us that huge swings up and down can be reasonably expected.
Hourly Chart
Fundamentally, with various Central Banks making rate decision announcements this coming week and Q3 GDP figures being released this week, not to mention the highly explosive US NFP numbers, Gold will be in for a bumpy ride as speculative play on QE Taper/No QE Taper will increase tremendously. Hence traders will need to distinguish between huge swings and genuine directional moves and only commit should strong directional trends emerge with confirmation (and ideally lined up with fundamental direction).
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