Gold And Silver: The Big Picture
Gary Tanashian | Oct 03, 2022 11:03AM ET
Gold and silver continue in the cyclical bear pattern that started in mid-2020. I had originally (and incorrectly) projected a cup-and-handle for gold that had to be revised to a double top when the 2022 high failed to gain blue sky. I’ve left the cup drawn on the chart but that is no longer a handle of any sort. It’s a mess, actually.
The next technical target for gold is support in the 1500s. While not overly likely, in my opinion, that would put a hard test on the bull market, which was indicated when gold took out the 1378 “bull gateway” (the bull/bear line shown below) in 2019.
As for silver, it continues to hold important long-term support at/around 18 after making a quick breakdown and reversal.
The precious metals complex is in a positive risk/reward situation, but that is different from a situation imminently ready to resume a bull market. It’s a process. A long and grinding one. Gold, silver and the miners have led the broad bear market by a country mile (the bear cycle is now in year 3) and the question remains whether or to what degree a final decline will manifest prior to bottoming.
That question could be answered by the answer to another question: Have enough inflation-centric bugs been exterminated (or at least cleaned out of the investor base) yet?
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