Gold And Inflation: It Was Once A Relationship That Could Be Relied Upon
Anna Coulling | Oct 01, 2021 11:10AM ET
When considering the daily chart for gold, I’m reminded of a well-known line from one of Samuel Taylor Coleridge’s poems, The Rime Of The Ancient Mariner, which is: ‘Water, water, everywhere and not a drop to drink.’ And you might wonder why? For gold, this could be rephrased as ‘Inflation, inflation everywhere and not a bullish move in sight!’
Everywhere you look, there is inflation and, seemingly, more inflation on the horizon, yet for some central banks, this may well coincide with the dreaded stagflation, where rising inflation and struggling economies combine in a toxic mix. This certainly seems to be a distinct possibility in the UK, where the carnage of COVID is now coming home to roost as indeed it is elsewhere in the world.
For gold, inflation should be the catalyst for an injection of some bullish momentum, or at least to halt the weakness that has been in play since June, when the rally that took the precious metal to $1,900 per ounce and beyond petered out into the slump and congestion of the last few months. While yesterday’s solid up candle on excellent volume was a good one both for trading and for precious metals. In the context of the chart, however, it does little to suggest we are witnessing the end of the current malaise.
Such rallies have come and gone before, and from a price-based perspective, the price-based resistance level that is key is all too clear. It sits just below the $1,840-per-ounce price point and is denoted with the red dashed line of the accumulation and distribution indicator for NinjaTrader. This level was tested in consecutive months from July and has held firm on each occasion. It is a level I have highlighted several times in posts this year. The reason it is significant is due to what lies beyond. In short, there is very little volume resistance. As we can see on the histogram, the volume on the VPOC histogram falls away dramatically, plus there is nothing in terms of price-based resistance. It is this level that gold bugs have in their sights, and while it is only $100 per ounce away from the current price, there is a mountain of obstacles in the way, including the VPOC itself denoted with the yellow dashed line, a solid wall of volume, and layers of price based resistance.
So tough times ahead if we are to see gold break free and past $1,900 per ounce longer term.
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The big unknown is whether inflation will ultimately play its traditional role with gold and if so, when. Perhaps it will happen when the central banks begin to take it more seriously and it becomes a reality for them as it is for us on a day to day basis. There is no guarantee that gold will re-engage with its traditional role, but until then, it’s a question of waiting to see if any recovery in the price is associated with rising volume to confirm this shift.
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