Global Housing Is Hurting, Onto ISM Services
Ashraf Laidi | Jan 08, 2019 12:26AM ET
A soft weekend on UK housing on the weekend adds to a growing list of places where home prices are suffering. USD is is lower across the board ahead of key US data with CHF leading and CAD lagging as we turn to Monday's ISM non-manufacturing index (more details below).
Powell's Friday comments reignited risk assets but this episode has likely capped interest rates for the cycle. What's troubling is that even with rates at these historically low levels, there are a handful of places with surprising weakness in housing. This highlights the fact that we should focus on the incremental increase in interest rates since Dec 2015 instead of the aboslute levels.
On the weekend, Nationwide reported that UK house prices fell 2.1% in the past year. They had been forecast to rise 0.5%. More worrisome is that prices are down 1.6% and 0.7% in the past two months alone.
It's far from isolated with home prices suffering in the US, parts of Canada and nearly 10% in Australia. Luxury markets have been under particular pressure with Manhattan, Vancouver, London and Sydney hard hit.
The common theme might be China where apartment prices in parts of the country are down nearly 50%. It begs the question of how much Chinese wealth was support markets elsewhere. It also adds to the worries that China's consumer is tapped out. In the bigger picture, the malaise in the housing market is another reason for central banks to keep rates where they are or lower even if the US and China settle their trade dispute.
On that front, mid-level officials are set to meet this week in Beijing and Trump signaled more progress on the weekend.
Looking to Monday's US session, the highlight is the ISM non-manufacturing index at 1500 GMT. The market is extremely sensitive to economic data at the moment and a miss would raise new questions about the US economy. The consensus is for a small dip to 59.0 from 60.7.
Get The News You Want
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.