GBP/USD: Pulls Back After Failure
FinFX | Oct 22, 2014 04:59AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro fell back to 1.27 support and near-term range’s lower boundary, following repeated failure on attempt at 1.2840, range tops zone. Yesterday’s bearish Outside Day signaled fresh weakness, which so far holds above 1.27 breakpoint area, reinforced by daily 20SMA. Negatively aligned near-term studies see increased downside risk, with clear break below 1.27 zone, which also marks 50% of entire 1.2499/1.2884 corrective rally, expected to trigger further retracement. Fresh bears will open targets1.2646, Fibonacci 61.8%, ahead of troughs at 1.2622 and 1.2603. Previous low and hourly 20SMA at 1.2730, caps for now, with further recovery attempts expected to be limited under 1.2782 lower top and hourly 20/55SMA’s bear-cross. However, while 1.27 zone remains intact, prolonged sideways trade would be likely near-term scenario.
Res: 1.2730; 1.2758; 1.2782; 1.2815
Sup: 1.2700; 1.2690; 1.2646; 1.2622
EUR/JPY
Near-term structure weakens after unsuccessful attempt at psychological 137 barrier and subsequent pullback to 135.68, which is close to 50% of 134.12/137.00 rally. Yesterday’s long red candle signals that corrective attempts would be sidelined for now and further consolidation seen as likely scenario. Overall bearish picture, however, sees limited corrective actions, before fresh attempts lower. Descending daily 20SMA, keeps the upside limited, with double bearish cross of 20/55 and 20/100 SMA’s, maintaining downside pressure. Only break above lower platform at 137.90 zone would bring larger bulls back in play. Yesterday’s low at 135.68 offers initial support, ahead of 135.2, Fibonacci 61.8% of 134.12/137.00 upleg and previous lower base at 135 zone.
Res: 136.22; 136.46; 136.78; 137.00
Sup: 135.68; 135.22; 135.00; 134.80
GBP/USD
Cable pulls back after failure to regain psychological 1.62 barrier, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, which guards 1.6225 breakpoint and high of 09 Oct. Yesterday’s close in red and failure to break above descending daily 20SMA, could be seen as initial signals of near-term weakness, as lower timeframes studies are losing traction and larger picture remains bearish. Downside extension below 1.6164, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5873/1.6182, also 4-hour 20/55SMA’s bull-cross, to confirm near-term negative stance, with break and close below 1.60 handle, to bring near-term bears fully in play. Conversely, fresh strength above 1.6200/25, to neutralize downside threats and open way for stronger correction.
Res: 1.6150; 1.6200; 1.6225; 1.6250
Sup: 1.6100; 1.6078; 1.6064; 1.6028
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USD/JPY
The pair consolidates around 107 handle, after failing to regain pivotal 107.50 barrier and subsequent two-legged pullback found footstep 106.24. Near-term studies are neutral, while daily bears are coming back to play. Extension and close below 106, psychological support, reinforced by ascending daily 55SMA is required to signal lower top formation and risk further weakness towards key near-term support at 105.18. Alternatively, sustained break above initial 107 barrier and clearance of 107.38/50 breakpoints, to neutralize downside risk.
Res: 107.10; 107.38; 107.50; 108.00
Sup: 106.60; 106.24; 106.11; 106.00
AUD/USD
Near-term price action remains in a range trading and returns to the range’s mid-point zone, following unsuccessful attempt above psychological 0.88 barrier. Near-term studies remain neutral and require break of either range boundary, for fresh direction, with yesterday’s Doji confirming scenario. However, overall bearish structure, favors resumption of larger downtrend from 0.9400 lower top, on completion of short-term consolidative phase. Only clear break above 0.89 breakpoint and range top would put larger bears on hold.
Res: 0.8800; 0.8836; 0.8858; 0.8900
Sup: 0.8743; 0.8731; 0.8700; 0.8684
AUD/NZD
The pair trades in extended consolidative phase around psychological 1.1000 support, as price action is capped under 1.0430, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1146/1.0979 downleg. Negative tone prevails on near-term studies and sees scope for eventual full retracement of 1.0915/1.1279 upleg, with break lower to signal an end of short-term consolidative phase and double-top formation. Yesterday’s Doji, signals further hesitation ahead of fresh weakness. Initial supports at psychological 1.10 level, was cracked, break o which to open 1.0973/56, daily 100SMA / 50% retracement of larger 1.0619/1.1293 ascend and key support and breakpoint at 1.0915, 22 Sep low. Daily indicators are establishing in the negative territory, which maintains negative outlook. Only break above pivotal 1.1100/50 resistance zone, daily 55 and 20SMA / 15 Oct lower top, would sideline bears and signal prolonged sideways trade.
Res: 1.1047; 1.1061; 1.1084; 1.1100
Sup: 1.1000; 1.0983; 1.0973; 1.0956
XAU/USD
Spot Gold remains supported and consolidates under new high at 1255, after fresh strength met initial targets at 1252/54, 50% retracement of 1322/1182 descend / daily 55 SMA. Positive near-term studies and daily indicators turning bullish, support further upside, after completion of consolidative phase. Look for extension towards 1269, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1322/1182 descend, as initial target, ahead of dynamic barriers at 1274, 100SMA and 1285, 200SMA, in extension. Consolidative action is supported by rising hourly 55SMA at 1246, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1231/1254 upleg, with extended pullback expected to be contained above 1240, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, to keep near-term bulls in play.
Res: 1249; 1254; 1269; 1274
Sup: 1246; 1243; 1240; 1235
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