GBP/USD: Back Through 1.55, Again
Stuart McPhee | Aug 15, 2013 01:07AM ET
The GBP/USD has reversed well to move back above 1.55 again after spending the last few days moving lower from the resistance level at 1.56. It moved back to the 1.5450 level, after having spent the last week or so moving higher and breaking through the resistance level at 1.54 pushing towards further resistance near 1.56. The resistance level at 1.54 was proving to be quite solid, and once it broke through the pound surged higher to a new seven week high near 1.56 in a solid 48 hour period run. In the week leading up to this the pound had recovered strongly and returned to the previous resistance level at 1.54 after the week earlier undoing some of its good work and falling away sharply from the resistance level at 1.54 back down to around 1.5150 and a two week low. A few weeks ago the 1.54 resistance level stood firm and the pound fell away heavily, however the 1.51 support level proved decisive and helped the pound rally strongly.
Earlier in July after having done very little for about a week, the GBP/USD started to move and surge higher and move through the 1.52 and 1.53 levels to the one month high above 1.54. Prior to the move higher, it moved very little as it found solid support at 1.51 and traded within a narrow range above this level. It established a trading range in between 1.51 and 1.52 after it took a breather from its excitement just prior when it experienced a strong surge higher moving back to within reach of the 1.52 level from below 1.49, all in 24 hours. About a month ago it did well to climb off the canvas and move back above 1.49 and towards 1.50 again before seeing the pound reverse and head back down below 1.49 to reach a new multi-year low near 1.48. It experienced sharp falls moving from 1.53 down to the key long term level of 1.50 and then through 1.49. That movement saw it resume its already well established medium term down trend from the second half of June and move it to a four month low.
Throughout the first half of June, it enjoyed its best run in a long time as it surged from 1.50 to 1.57 in just a few weeks. Its multiple key levels during its movement up towards 1.57 have appeared to have little impact during its decline in the month afterwards. With its recent surge higher it has nearly regained all of its losses from June and July when it fell strongly from 1.5750 down to below 1.49. Throughout the month of May the pound fell strongly and return almost all of its gains from the few weeks before that. In early March the pound moved to new lows around 1.4830 from a starting point near 1.64 at the beginning of the year.
UK unemployment fell by a small 4,000 in the three months to June leaving 2.51 million out of work, says the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance in July fell more sharply, down by 29,000 to 1.4 million. The unemployment rate remains at 7.8%, still well above the 7% rate target set by the Bank of England. The Bank’s governor, Mark Carney, says interest rates are unlikely to rise before that target is reached. The ONS said the figures meant unemployment was “broadly unchanged” from the first three months of the year. The number of people in work increased by 69,000 in the three months to June, up to 29.78 million. That is the highest level since records began in 1971.
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GBP/USD August 15 at 01:35 GMT 1.5515 H: 1.5547 L: 1.5422
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Thursday, the GBP/USD is continuing to rally a little higher from the short term support level at 1.55, after having previously surged higher to 1.5550 before retracing. Since the middle of June the pound has fallen very strongly from the resistance level at 1.57 back down towards the long term key level at 1.50 and is now enjoying a solid recovery over the last month or so. Current range: Right around 1.5520.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1.5500, 1.5450 and 1.5100.
• Above: 1.5550.
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the GBP/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The GBP/USD long positions ratio has moved below 40% as the GBP/USD has pushed up through 1.55 over the last week. Trader sentiment remains in favour of short positions.
Economic Releases
- 08:30 UK Retail Sales (Jul)
- 12:30 US CPI (Jul)
- 12:30 US Empire State Survey (Aug)
- 12:30 US Initial Claims (09/08/2013)
- 13:00 US Net Long-term TICS Flows (Jun)
- 13:15 US Capacity utilisation (Jul)
- 13:15 US Industrial production (Jul)
- 14:00 US NAHB Builders survey (Aug)
- 14:00 US Philadelphia Fed Survey (Aug)
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