FX: Quiet Day Points To Short-Term Retracement
Littlefish FX | Jan 14, 2013 05:29PM ET
Quiet day in the markets, today, with no real data points to speak of.
Main event of the day was Bernanke speaking in the U.S. after the New York close.
That said, Bernanke is getting good at not surprising the markets and therefore very little of note that Bernanke hasn't already said, although was interesting to see him taking questions from Twitter and refusing to speak on the trillion-dollar coin or QE ending.
The U.S. session did provide a bit of a surprise when rumours hit of the possibility of Dell being taken private.
This helped Dell shares soar for a bit but didn't really spark a wider risk rally we sometimes see with strong moves in equities.
Although normally you need a broad based equity move to be sparked off of the news.
EUR/USD
Little change in the Euro today keeps strategy the same.
Following the last weeks test of the 1.30 handle and push higher we now look for a potential correction and support for a further move above the 1.33 handle.
If you are currently long this pair I like trailing stops and looking for a move towards the 1.34 then 1.35 handle.
Retracements may offer an opportunity to get long on a rejection off of support.
Look for the 1.33 handle to offer previous resistance turned support or below that around the 1.3170 mark.
COT Still Points To Potential Long
GBP/USD
Pound dropped again today to test the 1.6040 mark.
We now need to watch this level carefully a break of the 1.60 could push us lower to test the 200 day moving average.
A hold above and we could look to test recent highs again.
On a weekly basis there is still potential to the upside; however I am keeping a close eye on the Index level this week when the report is released tomorrow as we could be looking to break below the 70 mark and head into more neutral territory.
AUD/USD
Aussie has put in another rejection of lower prices.
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With a strong resistance level not far above Longs don't offer value for money from these levels.
We can watch the 1.06250 level for rejection pointing to a move lower, or alternatively a break of this level could see a larger push higher.
Weekly resistance above 1.06250 comes in around the 1.0855 mark.
Interim support level on the lower time frames held nicely today.
USD/JPY
Relatively flat day for the Dollar vs the Yen today.
This pair could easily be on its way up to 95.00.
Strategy remains the same to look for buying opportunities on a retracement.
EUR/AUD
Pair stumbled today and looks like it might put in a small retracement, potentially on further Aussie strength.
I maintain my long position but will keep an eye on the support level around 1.2550 a break of this could see us test the 200 day moving average again.
USD/HUF
My favourite pair at the moment.
Dollar looking lower today against the Hungarian Forint.
Weekly chart is showing lower highs, a weaker Dollar could see this test weekly lows around the 210 mark.
EUR/CAD And GBP/CAD
EURCAD took off on Thursday and Friday hitting the initial 2:1 target then pushing higher.
Pair stalled today and look as if it might put in a slight retracement before a move higher.
Still like the GBP/CAD for a break higher hear having found some strong support but we look desitned to test this again especially with a weaker pound today.
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