FX Strategy: EUR/GBP-Don't Forget: Optimism Can Be Fleetin
Danske Markets | Sep 23, 2019 02:47AM ET
GBP has priced in a lot of Brexit optimism in terms of negotiations between the EU and the UK. However, from here, it may not take much of a change in politics to get a large, negative repricing of GBP. We recommend considering hedging at these levels with a strong spot, thus removing high risk.
GBP has rallied on optimism, but not much more
In the past month(s), EUR/GBP has moved lower from 0.93 and the key catalyst has been the notion that the EU and UK might resolve their issues. We've seen a new low at 0.88 (GBP/DKK just shy of 8.50) as EU's Juncker was quoted saying that a deal could 'maybe' be reached before the October deadline and GBP rallied accordingly. We view this re-pricing since August as fair but unstable: rising expectations of a decent Brexit solution and/or extension do indeed lower the probability of seeing an immediate increase in tariffs and a recession for the UK, see What if: no-deal Brexit scenario for EUR/GBP .
Following the recent GBP rally, we stress that it will take only minimal negative news to substantially reprice GBP spot (Chart 1). In terms of possible outcomes, our cyclical fair-value estimate for EUR/GBP is 0.85 (Chart 2) and a full no-deal takes sterling close to, but below, 1.0. But, even with an extension, we should not reprice all the way to cyclical fair value as an extension would be accompanied by an election and thus renewed political risk. In turn, this will put pressure on the weak economy which could move lower as uncertainty is extended. The result of an election is not clear either, but it does have the potential to add volatility back in to GBP. From an FX perspective, we observe that GBP can often be seemingly 'irrational' in the pricing of realistic political outcomes versus headline-driven news and be quite momentum driven. Thus, in October and ahead, we see scope for repricing risk in EUR/GBP, when viewed from the stance of today's optimism. Our base case remains a Brexit extension will be needed once more, with the risk of a renewed drop in GBP being omnipresent; we target EUR/GBP at 0.90 in 3M (NYSE:MMM). In light of this, we consider the risk-reward from locking in GBP income favourable at current levels.
Get The News You Want
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.