FX Speculators Drop USD Index Bets For 3rd Week. Euro, GBP Bets Jump
Zachary Storella | Jun 14, 2020 03:28AM ET
Large currency speculators reduced their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets once again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 4,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 9th. This was a weekly reduction of -3,569 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,258 net contracts.
This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by 2,999 contracts (to a weekly total of 20,876 contracts) but being overcome by the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a boost by 6,568 contracts on the week (to a total of 16,187 contracts).
Speculators decreased their bullish bets for the US Dollar Index for a third consecutive week and the dollar position has now fallen by -12,608 contracts in just the past three weeks. The recent declines have brought the current bullish standing down to the lowest level since June 12th of 2018, span of 104 weeks. The Dollar Index price has felt the drop in sentiment of the past three weeks as well. The DXY has fallen from a level around 100.40 on May 18th to a close this week at approximately 97.30.
h3 Individual Currencies Data this week:/h3In the other major currency contracts data, we saw three substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.
Euro speculative positions rose by the most in eleven weeks this week. The euro bets have continued to be strongly bullish and have increased in twelve out of the past fifteen weeks with a remarkable gain of +209,670 contracts in that time-frame. The current bullish standing of +95,649 contracts is now the most bullish sentiment for speculators since May 22nd of 2018, a span of 107 weeks.
British pound sterling positions rebounded this week with a gain of +11,996 contracts following a substantial downstreak. Previously, the GBP speculator bets had fallen for thirteen straight weeks and dropped a total of -71,206 contracts in that time-frame. The downstreak flipped the GBP standing from a bullish one into a bearish one on April 21st. This week’s gain keeps the pound in bearish territory but off of the most bearish since November 26th.
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Speculators sharply reduced their Japanese yen bullish bets by over -15,000 contracts this week and decreased thier bets for the second straight week. The sharp drop brought the current bullish standing to the lowest level of the past thirteen weeks.
Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the euro (14,409 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (11,996 contracts), Canadian dollar (8,309 contracts), Australian dollar (4,216 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (1,682 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-3,569 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-15,117 contracts), Swiss franc (-7,223 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-9,163 contracts).
h3 Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range/h3The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.
Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.
h3 Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:/h3This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
h3 Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price/h3EuroFX:
The Euro large speculator standing this week was a net position of 95,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,240 net contracts.
British Pound Sterling:
The large British pound sterling speculator level resulted in a net position of -24,048 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly rise of 11,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,044 net contracts.
Japanese Yen:
Large Japanese yen speculators equaled a net position of 17,462 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly fall of -15,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,579 net contracts.
Swiss Franc:
The Swiss franc speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,766 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,989 net contracts.
Canadian Dollar:
Canadian dollar speculators was a net position of -24,829 contracts this week. This was a boost of 8,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,138 net contracts.
Australian Dollar:
The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures recorded a net position of -36,575 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,791 net contracts.
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar speculative standing totaled a net position of -11,241 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly advance of 1,682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,923 net contracts.
Mexican Peso:
Mexican peso speculators was a net position of -846 contracts this week. This was a weekly decline of -9,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,317 net contracts.
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