Fx Speculators Cut USD Bullish Positions For 6th Out Of Last 7 Weeks
Zachary Storella | Sep 18, 2016 05:27AM ET
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators reduced their bets of the US dollar last week and have decreased their bets six out of the last seven weeks.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$7.13 billion as of Tuesday September 13th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters.
This was a weekly change of -$1.97 billion from the +$9.10 billion total long position that was registered on September 6th, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).
The US dollar speculative level has now been under the +$10 billion threshold for five consecutive weeks.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed the major currencies that improved the most against the US dollar were the euro (+11,155 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (+7,148 contracts) and the Japanese yen (+2,357 contracts).
The currencies on the downside of speculative bets last week versus the dollar were the Mexican peso (-7,348 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (-3,847 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,492 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-999 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-103 contracts).
Notable changes:
British pound speculative positions gained last week for the third straight week after previously falling for eight weeks in a row.
Euro positions bounced back following declines in the last two weeks after an upward trend in the previous four weeks.
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Yen positions rebounded last week after a decline on Sept 6th (which had marked the first decrease in six weeks).
Australian dollar positions decreased for a third week and declined to the least bullish level of the past five weeks.
Mexican peso positions declined last week for a third straight week and slid to its most bearish since June 21st.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.
All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
British Pound Sterling:
Japanese Yen:
Swiss Franc:
Canadian Dollar:
Australian Dollar:
New Zealand Dollar:
Mexican Peso:
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
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