FX Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD
eFXnews | Dec 05, 2014 03:56AM ET
The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY, and AUD/CAD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: At least a correction attempt. The outlined touchdown took place a few points above the ideal turning zone, 1.2258-29. The ECB induced move higher became very impulsive as weak shorts began running for the exit. At one point, above 1.2391, the pair was even in a bullish key day reversal status which later on was rejected. Today’s key focus will be to see whether the weekly close comes in above or below 1.2358 (spring bottom or not?). If believing in more upside potential then the 1,2340-60 area represents a buying zone.
EUR/GBP: Near term more upside potential. The piercing pattern created yesterday together with the contracting range (and the three wave descent from its upper boundary) clearly speaks in favor of more upside potential near term as the pair should be heading for a test of the upper boundary area, 0.7995 – 0.8035.
USD/JPY: Another milestone reached. The arrival at the 161.8% Fibo projection point, 120.13, of the May – Oct advance has the potential of at least being a short term top. As such the market should then fall back in a forth wave consolidation, 117.24? Yesterday’s doji candle at least indicates that the pair has reached short term equilibrium and if ending today net down a bearish signal will be given. A break below 119.67 will add a lot of credibility to the short term top scenario.
AUD/CAD: Stretched & a bullish candle added. A short-term "wave-5 low" may be in place. Conditions are short-term overstretched and a potentially bullish candle was added yesterday. This points higher near-term, initially for a test of the high end of the (terminating) "Wedge", now at 0.9645 (in vicinity to the "Tenkan-Sen"). A more ambitious target would be 0.9680740.
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