FX Futures Speculators Push U.S. Dollar Bullish Bets Higher
Zachary Storella | Oct 04, 2015 03:03AM ET
US Dollar net speculator positions rose last week to +$21.73 billion.
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators raised their overall net bullish positions in the US dollar last week after decreasing for the previous two weeks.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $21.73 billion as of Tuesday September 29th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$1.25 billion from the $20.48 billion total long position that was registered on September 22nd, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
Last week’s data brings the US dollar speculative level to the highest level of the past three weeks and the dollar bullish bets avoided falling under the $20 billion level for the first time since July 22nd 2014 when the net positions equaled $14.12 billion.
h3 Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:/h3Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the Japanese yen, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday September 29th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
h3 Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price/h3EuroFX:
h3 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions/h3
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150825 | 374977 | 18025 | 91151 | -31175 | -66078 | 26654 |
| 20150901 | 363980 | -10997 | 88343 | -2808 | -67857 | -1779 |
| 20150908 | 383187 | 19207 | 108445 | 20102 | -81241 | -13384 |
| 20150915 | 311366 | -71821 | 102410 | -6035 | -84202 | -2961 |
| 20150922 | 315450 | 4084 | 102114 | -296 | -81033 | 3169 |
| 20150929 | 322721 | 7271 | 112066 | 9952 | -87660 | -6627 |
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h3 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions/h3
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150825 | 176962 | 4879 | -10144 | -7695 | 3299 | 7270 |
| 20150901 | 170032 | -6930 | 16672 | 26816 | -11239 | -14538 |
| 20150908 | 186994 | 16962 | 30908 | 14236 | -17638 | -6399 |
| 20150915 | 145704 | -41290 | 13699 | -17209 | -3619 | 14019 |
| 20150922 | 146573 | 869 | 5006 | -8693 | 1267 | 4886 |
| 20150929 | 155821 | 9248 | 11414 | 6408 | -2047 | -3314 |
h3 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions/h3
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150825 | 260458 | 9040 | 54714 | -70505 | -39059 | 51071 |
| 20150901 | 273205 | 12747 | 28503 | -26211 | -15555 | 23504 |
| 20150908 | 279712 | 6507 | 21012 | -7491 | -6662 | 8893 |
| 20150915 | 166081 | -113631 | 39559 | 18547 | -26814 | -20152 |
| 20150922 | 177439 | 11358 | 31587 | -7972 | -23678 | 3136 |
| 20150929 | 174697 | -2742 | 32538 | 951 | -22052 | 1626 |
h3 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions/h3
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150825 | 37901 | -5687 | 20795 | -5343 | -12597 | -2729 |
| 20150901 | 36203 | -1698 | 17424 | -3371 | -8503 | 4094 |
| 20150908 | 40937 | 4734 | 18400 | 976 | -6896 | 1607 |
| 20150915 | 37846 | -3091 | 7608 | -10792 | 3782 | 10678 |
| 20150922 | 36981 | -865 | 11900 | 4292 | -1876 | -5658 |
| 20150929 | 38229 | 1248 | 14175 | 2275 | -2715 | -839 |
h3 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions/h3
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150825 | 168819 | 7076 | 80808 | -5270 | -59712 | 7082 |
| 20150901 | 161893 | -6926 | 76574 | -4234 | -55119 | 4593 |
| 20150908 | 159492 | -2401 | 68580 | -7994 | -48640 | 6479 |
| 20150915 | 188043 | 28551 | 69332 | 752 | -47083 | 1557 |
| 20150922 | 136213 | -51830 | 57613 | -11719 | -38394 | 8689 |
| 20150929 | 139431 | 3218 | 62891 | 5278 | -42235 | -3841 |
h3 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions/h3
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150825 | 174378 | 13034 | 89239 | 12461 | -63727 | -13844 |
| 20150901 | 173947 | -431 | 82795 | -6444 | -55732 | 7995 |
| 20150908 | 190761 | 16814 | 84684 | 1889 | -53316 | 2416 |
| 20150915 | 156879 | -33882 | 66468 | -18216 | -40729 | 12587 |
| 20150922 | 147279 | -9600 | 75971 | 9503 | -52832 | -12103 |
| 20150929 | 142869 | -4410 | 69579 | -6392 | -48865 | 3967 |
h3 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions/h3
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150825 | 33400 | -3123 | 9686 | -3995 | -6063 | 3894 |
| 20150901 | 34339 | 939 | 12265 | 2579 | -8279 | -2216 |
| 20150908 | 38325 | 3986 | 15680 | 3415 | -11820 | -3541 |
| 20150915 | 33352 | -4973 | 5761 | -9919 | -2094 | 9726 |
| 20150922 | 35920 | 2568 | 7840 | 2079 | -3529 | -1435 |
| 20150929 | 34105 | -1815 | 6947 | -893 | -3062 | 467 |
h3 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions/h3
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150825 | 196090 | 24623 | 87178 | 22883 | -83053 | -22626 |
| 20150901 | 191019 | -5071 | 82603 | -4575 | -76937 | 6116 |
| 20150908 | 188237 | -2782 | 75711 | -6892 | -70951 | 5986 |
| 20150915 | 130555 | -57682 | 60227 | -15484 | -55285 | 15666 |
| 20150922 | 126544 | -4011 | 17119 | -43108 | -12356 | 42929 |
| 20150929 | 142517 | 15973 | 47696 | 30577 | -44451 | -32095 |
COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (three days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the US dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
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