Littlefish FX | Sep 18, 2013 04:00AM ET
Today
So far we have had two rather quiet days in the market, Monday sparked slightly more volatility off of the US data, where as today saw either static or some minor grinds in most pairs.
The entire focus over the past two months has been on jobs data out of the US and the potential for the Fed to taper asset purchases. As we have stated all along we still believe the Fed will taper tomorrow with the consensus now looking like a $10bn taper.
The event itself will be highly anticipated and may see some volatility, however it could turn out to be a bit of a non event unless there is a major shock with markets already pricing in some form of taper or the comments from big Ben. No taper and dovish comments are likely to be viewed as US Dollar negative with a much large taper and hawkish comments US Dollar positive.
Retail Order Books have chopped around lately but the Fed could provide the next major turning point.
EUR/USD
Long: 1.3260
RTAS Order Book systems still holding longs this pair as we continue to see some Retail Sellers prior to the FOMC meeting as many Retail Traders are positioned for US Dollar strength. Support comes in at the 1.3280 level, resistance comes in around the 1.3360 / 1.3400 mark.
Long: 1.5620
RTAS Order Book systems holding longs in this pair as it continued to push higher again on Friday. Holding below that magic 30% figure in Retail Traders long this pair, which inevitably means that any move higher now will need to clear out orders if it is to proceed. Having now broken the 1.5775 level convincingly this turns to a key support level. MPC minutes may actually be more critical than the FOMC statement tomorrow so watch for those in the morning, the market has been extremely Pound positive recently with rates rises being predicted and priced in before the BoE has estimated. Fundamentally we still sit in the camp suggesting that the good UK data is more cyclical than a real turn around, the weaker UK data today could be a sign of this.
Long: 0.9320
Systems switched to longs today as we started to see some further Retail Selling in the cross. Strong resistance comes in around the 0.9380 / 0.9400 mark with interim support around the 0.9300 level followed by the 0.9250 mark.
Short: 1.4320
The RTAS Order Book systems finally booked profit on the shorts and jumped long this pair on some minor Retail Selling, however during the day we have seen a rather flat Order Book with even some Buying suggesting that unless this pair pushes higher sooner we could actually see this break lower again.. Support comes in at the 1.4250 / 1.4180 levels with key resistance at the 1.4470 mark.
Short: 0.8380
Order Book systems have chopped around at current levels with an almost perfectly flat Retail Order Book. Pair seems nicely sat within a range for breakout trading as traders are waiting for the next major move. The pair has seemed relatively supported at the 0.8375 / 0.8350 level but resistance comes in just above at the 0.8430 / 0.8445 level.
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