Daily Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD: September 30, 2016
SGT Markets | Sep 30, 2016 05:46AM ET
EUR/USD
Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.1303
2nd Resistance: 1.1340
3rd Resistance: 1.1385
1st Support: 1.1205
2nd Support: 1.1115
3rd Support: 1.1054
EUR
Recent Facts:
22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014
28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.
29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February
18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as Expected and as per previous month
23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August
31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected
1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected
8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged
23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Services PMI Worse than Expected (new historical low from July 2013)
29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected
Eyes on today release: European Consumer Price Index (CPI)
USD
Recent Facts:
12th of August, U.S. Retail Sales (essential for a better understanding of the Fed’s future interest rates policies)
Worse than Expected
16th of August, Building Permits
Worse than Expected
17th of August, FOMC Meeting Minutes (U.S.A.)
Economists see the December meeting as the most likely time for a rate increase since it follows the U.S. presidential election
23rd of August, U.S. New Home Sales: it measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month
Better than Expected. Setting a new high since December 2007
Get The News You Want
25th of August, U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items)
Better than Expected
26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.
31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than Expected
2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected
6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years
15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected
16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected
21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further
27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)
28th of September, Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected
Fed's Janet Yellen: Banks well capitalized despite weak interest income
29th of September, GDP + Pending Home Sales
GDP Better than Expected, Pending Home Sales Worse than Expected
GBP/USD
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.3080
2nd Resistance: 1.3220
1st Support: 1.2885
2nd Support: 1.2680
GBP
Recent Facts:
22nd of July 2016, UK Services PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low, the lowest value of the last 7 years
27th of July 2016, Gross Domestic Product (preliminary)
Better than Expected
4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program
9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected
9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low
16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015
18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015
1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015
5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected
Eyes on today release: Gross Domestic Product
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
AUD/USD
Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7660
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
3rd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7420
AUD
Recent Facts:
19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote
26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared
2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected
4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected
11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected
18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year
24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected
1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected
7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected
15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected
20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance
30th of September, New Home Sales + Private Sector Credit
New Home Sales Better than Previous, Private Sector Credit slightly Worse than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
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