FX analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD
SGT Markets | Sep 28, 2016 05:33AM ET
EUR/USD
Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.1303
2nd Resistance: 1.1340
3rd Resistance: 1.1385
1st Support: 1.1205
2nd Support: 1.1115
3rd Support: 1.1054
EUR
Recent Facts:
22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than expected. Setting a new high from May 2014.
28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected.
29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than expected. Setting a new high since last February.
18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as expected and as per previous month.
23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe
Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August.
31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than expected.
1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than expected.
8th of September, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged.
23rd of September, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany) + German Services PMI
German Manufacturing PMI better than expected, German Services PMI worse than expected (new historical low from July 2013).
USD
Recent Facts:
12th of August, U.S. Retail Sales (essential for a better understanding of the Fed’s future interest rates policies)
Worse than expected.
16th of August, Building Permits
Worse than expected.
17th of August, FOMC Meeting Minutes (U.S.A.)
Economists see the December meeting as the most likely time for a rate increase since it follows the U.S. presidential election.
23rd of August, U.S. New Home Sales: it measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month
Better than expected. Setting a new high since December 2007.
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25th of August, U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items)
Better than expected.
26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech
Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.
31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales
Both better than expected.
2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected.
6th of September, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years.
15th of September, Retail Sales + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales worse than expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing better than expected.
16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than expected.
21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further.
27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007).
Eyes on today release: Core Durable Goods Orders + Fed Speeches
GBP/USD
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.3080
2nd Resistance: 1.3220
1st Support: 1.2885
2nd Support: 1.2680
GBP
Recent Facts:
22nd of July 2016, UK Services PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Worse than expected. Setting a new historical low, the lowest value of the last 7 years.
27th of July 2016, Gross Domestic Product (preliminary)
Better than expected.
4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program.
9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly worse than expected.
9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than expected. Setting a new historical low.
16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than expected. Setting a new high since January 2015.
18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015.
1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015.
5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than expected.
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
AUD/USD
Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7660
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
3rd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7420
AUD
Recent Facts:
19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote.
26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared.
2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as expected.
4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than expected.
11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as expected.
18th of August, Employment Change
Better than expected. Highest since the beginning of this year.
24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than expected.
1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than expected.
7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As expected.
15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than expected.
20th of September, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Neutral stance.
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
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